Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251841
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough Saturday. High pressure and decent weather
for Memorial Day, but more unsettled conditions should return by
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Cumulus field is building this afternoon, but from visible
satellite imagery, it is apparent that the relatively shallow
saturated layer is having a head time feeding vertical
development. Some small showers have popped over the Tug Fork
Valley, and expect more coverage, especially in the mountains
over the next few hours this evening. Some thunder is possible,
but again, the dry air in the mid levels is going to be
inhibitive to a large degree.

Higher dewpoints are leading to milder overnight lows tonight.

Expect an increase in rain chances early Saturday with the
approach of the open wave aloft moving into the middle Ohio
Valley, so the increase in POPs is not completely dependent on
heating tomorrow. Coverage should increase with the added
instability and moisture depth increases region wide. Lots of
general thunder potential for the entire eastern third of the
CONUS on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday

With a good feed of Gulf moisture and an upper level trough moving
through, expect showers and thunderstorms to drift through Saturday
night and Sunday. By Sunday night, and especially Monday, we are in
the dead area between the northern and southern streams which should
limit showers and storms. Still, with decent moisture kept some low
end POPs in, mainly across the south and east. Temperatures will
remain above normal. Stuck close to a consensus blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The pattern is a bit messy for the long term. Initially a cold front
will try to sink in from the north while the remnants of what
becomes of sub-tropical storm Alberto begin moving north out of the
Gulf. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is rather low on the
evolution of this resulting in minimal confidence. Due to this,
stuck very close to a consensus blend which brings slightly higher
POPs each day Tuesday through Thursday as the remnants drift
through. The threat for flooding and strong to severe storms will
highly depend on the track of these features. Continued showers and
storms are possible Friday with an upper level system somewhere in
the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Coverage of showers will increase over the next 3 to 6 hours as
heating peaks, but only carrying prevailing SHRA at BKW. Lower
chances elsewhere make prevailing a risky bet at this time. The
chance for thunder is also on the lower side, so no mention in
the TAF for this as well. AMDs possible as convection patterns
form.

EKN being hit hard for fog tonight by the LAMP guidance but
lower everywhere else, and will ride this data for this
issuance. If any terminal gets appreciable rain, that fog
forecast potential for the overnight will need to be revisited.

Winds remain under 10kts through the period. Rain/thunder
chances increase on Saturday towards 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Terminals that get rain see brief IFR. May
need to add TSRA for isolated/scattered cells.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26



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