Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 251614
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 AM PDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue across
the area through Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to
bring increasing winds and cooler temperatures to the region heading
into the weekend with high temperatures around normal forecast by
Sunday.
&&

.UPDATE...No change to the forecast. Well-above normal temperatures
and dry conditions will continue across the region. Areas of high
clouds currently over Inyo County will spread eastward across the
southern Great Basin through the afternoon.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM PDT Wed Apr 25 20

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Friday night.

Ridging remains over the area through tonight before shifting east
Thursday in response to low pressure approaching the west coast.
With the ridging, expect today`s high temperatures to be similar to
a touch warmer than yesterday. Increasing southwest flow aloft and
deeper mixing on Thursday will send afternoon high temperatures
close to record levels in some areas. In Las Vegas, the forecast
high of 96 degrees is just one degree shy of the record last set in
1996.

Shortwave energy is forecast to spin off the eastern Pacific low and
move inland over central California Friday resulting in widespread
breezy to windy conditions across our area. Guidance suggests gusts
generally in the 30-40 mph range with localized higher gusts.
Although winds look marginal, at best, for wind advisories on
Friday, areas with dry fuel conditions, could experience increasing
fire danger due to the combination of low relative humidity, gusty
winds and well above normal temperatures.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

A change to increasing winds and a cooling trend is still on track
this weekend through early next week as a broad Pacific closed low
moves inland Saturday with its center over northern California and
northern Nevada. The medium range models still indicate it will be a
generally minor impact system for our area with considerable
differences in details especially Monday through the middle of next
week. There is good agreement that a shortwave rounding the base of
the low will brush central/southern Nevada Saturday stirring up
southwest winds with widespread gusts of 25-35 mph by Saturday
afternoon. A typical enhanced belt of west to southwest winds across
San Bernardino County up through southern Clark and Mohave counties
could result in fairly extensive gusts over 40 mph Saturday
afternoon. Northwest winds then push down through the region
Saturday night and Sunday morning behind the ejecting shortwave.
This will lead to temperatures pulling back near normal by Sunday
with winds generally less than 20 mph across much of the region.

Model agreement after Sunday is low with the GFS depicting a
shortwave dropping down from western Canada and spinning up a closed
low over our region Monday and Tuesday then lifting it over the Four
Corners Wednesday. The ECMWF indicates a generally zonal flow for
our forecast area Monday and Tuesday with the low over the northern
Intermountain Region then spins a closed low up over southern Nevada
for the middle of next week. In either case, the most noticeable
effect will be near or slightly below normal temperatures. Any
precipitation chances will be favored over the southern Sierra and
central Nevada.

&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...For McCarran... Current light northerly
winds could enhance a bit to around 10 knots later this morning and
last for several hours before decreasing in the afternoon. Typical
diurnal winds return tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light winds under 10 knots across the area
today with occasional high clouds. Typical diurnal winds are
expected tonight with increasing southerly winds on Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$
Update...Boothe
Short term/Aviation...Salmen
Long term...Adair
&&

$$

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