Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
547 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...North Central Gulf Coast Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...A Near Normal Spring Flood Potential Expected for Southeast
Mississippi, Southwest Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle...

Historically, river flood season begins in early to mid January,
peaks in early to mid March, then tapers in the late April
to early May time frame.

Rainfall across the region in the last 30 days ranges from above
normal over southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle to below seasonal over inland southwest and south
central Alabama. Currently, streamflows are running above normal in
southeast MS and near to slightly below normal across southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

A series of frontal systems during the past month has prevented the
further advancement of a `would be` drought. Conditions are now much
improved and the next 30 days look to have continued wetness.

...Pascagoula Basin in south Mississippi.....

Soil moisture is near seasonal levels and recent rainfall has caused
streamflows to rise above normal levels. Minor flooding is forecast
for portions of the Chickasawhay and Leaf Rivers. Current observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

Leaf River                     McLain MS     296%
Chickasawhay River        Leakesville MS     223%
Pascagoula River              Merrill MS     171%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the
Pascagoula River Basin in the Mar-Apr-May time frame.

...Southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle...

There will be a gradient of 90 Day forecast rainfall that has equal
chances of going either way (ie., wet or dry) over interior southern
Alabama to only slightly drier forecast conditions across coastal
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. However, the 30-Day March
NWS CPC Rainfall Outlook does show wetness across the region. See
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Please also realize, historically, some of the greatest excessive
precipitation events have occurred across our region during a time
when winter is transitioning into Summer. Long lead precipitation
outlooks reflect are based on forecasts of persistent global
circulation patterns and where large scale frontal systems are
forecast (or not) to produce rainfall. These say nothing about an
individual weather system that may produce just a few hours of deep
convective thunderstorm activity which may break daily, weekly or
monthly rainfall records in a single event. So be prepared and have
a plan! If we see such a pattern becoming established for any future
evolving weather system, this product (and others) will be used to
provide updates.

For more information:

Additional and current weather information can be found at:

https://weather.gov/mob

For more detailed information concerning river states and
forecasts, go to:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mob

For a precipitation analysis, go to:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?location_type=wfo&location
_name=mob

$$



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