Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FNUS73 KDTX 221128
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Chickadee Rx...MDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
728 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Slow moving low pressure will move across southern
Michigan today. This system will sustain ample cloud which will in
turn keep temps relatively cool with humidities elevated.
Strengthening high pressure will expand across the region on
Wednesday, providing ample sunshine and much drier conditions, with
Wed min RH values dropping below 40 percent. This high will
influence the area through the end of the workweek, supporting warm
temperatures and low humidities.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    in the late morning and early afternoon.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........89  87  85  83  81  75  69  63
Weather cov......ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type.....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............50  49  51  52  53  53  53  54
RH...............93  94  85  81  78  76  74  72
Eye lvl wnd dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd..5   6   7   8   8   8   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst..                9   9   8
Mix hgt (kft)....0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir..NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd..5   6   8   10  13  14  14  13
Haines index.....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000.0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....43-48.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds around 5 mph becoming west up
                    to 4 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......100-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 2 to 10 mph becoming west around 2
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)..........55     38     31     25     22     26
Weather cov......
Weather type.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............55     57     53     49     47     47
RH...............70     71     82     92     94     97
Eye level wind...NE 6   E 4    NE 4   E 4    SW 4   W 4
Eye lvl wnd gst..       5
Mix hgt (ft).....500    400    200    100    100    100
Transport wind...NE 10  E 3    NE 2   E 2    SW 2   W 2
Haines index.....3      2      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000.0      0      0      0      0      0

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....71-76.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2200 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-20000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%)..........26        19        8         4
Weather cov......
Weather type.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............47        54        65        71
RH...............99        82        60        47
Eye level wind...W 4       W 4       W 4       SW 4
Mix hgt (ft).....100       200       1000      2100
Transport wind...W 2       W 3       W 6       W 8
Haines index.....3         3         4         5
VRate kt-ft/1000.0         0         10        20

$$
Forecaster...Considine
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810458.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/22/18
.EMAIL osterlandl@michigan.gov


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