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000
FXUS65 KABQ 211140
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Eastern New Mexico will be cloudy and seasonably cool again today
while the western portion of the state remains mostly clear with
above average temperatures. A few showers and storms may generate
locally gusty winds over the high terrain this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon. After that, dry weather prevails through at least
Thursday as southwest winds trend stronger and temperatures warm.
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
and may stick around through the weekend east of the central
mountain chain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Surface high anchored over the Southern Plains continues to result
in an east to west pressure gradient across NM this morning. Strong
east canyon winds into the middle Rio Grande Valley have begun to
weaken below earlier gusts to 41 kt. Despite the low level Gulf
moisture influx from the east today, very dry northwest flow aloft
is forecast to win out with only a few light afternoon showers
primarily over the Gila and northern Sangre de Cristo mountains.
Models have trended slightly toward keeping the cool air and low
clouds in eastern NM for much of the day, likely resulting in high
temperatures several degrees below the lower model temperature
guidance. Lowered highs from the east slopes of the central
mountains eastward a few degrees as a result. High resolution models
agree that another westward surge into the RGV is likely this
evening, but it`s expected to be weaker and shorter lived thanks to
surface high over TX shifting eastward. By Monday, a relatively flat
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west and combines with a
lee side trough developing in eastern CO to allow temperatures to
warm to above average values for late April areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Any gusty virga showers and storms Monday afternoon will quickly
diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A backdoor
front will enter from the northeast as early as mid-day Tuesday,
with its progress accelerating westward overnight. Strengthening
westerly flow aloft will compete with the fronts westward
progression so the timing/strength of any potential east canyon
winds remains uncertain. Curiously, the NBM is hinting at an east
canyon wind of around 20-25kts in east Albuquerque while some MOS
guidance doesn`t even have winds turning around to the east. A lack
of low-level moisture makes a stratus deck across eastern NM appear
unlikely in the front`s wake, but sky coverage was still increased
since upslope flow in the central and northeast highlands should be
sufficient for at least a few clouds.

Westerly flow will rapidly take over Wednesday morning, pushing the
more moist airmass off to the east and allowing even drier air to
enter into western NM out ahead of a trough. There is still some
uncertainty with regard to this trough`s timing, but ensemble mean
500mb heights are in better agreement compared to previous runs.
Breezy southwest winds Wednesday will likely trend stronger Thursday
afternoon as the fast-moving trough ejects inland and lifts into the
southern Rockies. Winds are expected to remain at least breezy late
week into the weekend since troughing is anticipated to re-develop
and deepen over The Great Basin. The result will be increased
precipitation chances and cooler temps across western NM, but
unfortunately downsloping west winds will likely keep eastern NM dry
with continued fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Widespread low clouds and MVFR and IFR conditions along with
areas of dense fog will continue in the eastern half of the state
this morning, gradually dissipating from late morning through mid
to late afternoon. A dense fog advisory has been issued for the
central highlands south to the south central mountains and
southwest Chaves county through 21/16Z as a result of the fog.
Patchy low ceilings are forecast to return to the east slopes of
the central mountain chain eastward overnight. As surface high
pressure shifts eastward through TX today, east and southeast
canyon winds at KABQ and KSAF, respectively, are forecast to be
weaker this evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

One more relatively cool day is in store today before a warming
trend gets underway Monday, especially east, continuing into
Tuesday. Relatively light wind will continue today and Tuesday
underneath high pressure aloft. Winds start to increase ahead of an
upper level closed low Wednesday, with near critical fire weather
conditions expected to expand across the western third of the state.
Winds associated with an upper low over AZ increase further Thursday
with critical fire weather conditions appearing likely for most
areas below snowpack. This low is forecast to slide east along the
CO border Thursday with the strongest winds expected to be south of
I-40 and east of I-25. Westerly flow aloft Friday will lead to
breezy to locally windy conditions with the best potential for
critical conditions forecast for the east central plains. Another
upper low is forecast to result in breezy to locally windy
conditions once again for much of the forecast area next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  32  76  37 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  69  38  74  44 /   5   0  20   5
Gallup..........................  75  37  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  41  73  43 /  10   5  10   0
Grants..........................  74  37  78  41 /  10   5  10   0
Quemado.........................  73  41  74  43 /  10   5  10   0
Magdalena.......................  68  45  74  49 /  20   5   5   5
Datil...........................  68  41  72  45 /  10  10  10   0
Reserve.........................  78  37  79  40 /   5   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  81  47  82  53 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  33  69  37 /  10   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  65  43  72  49 /  10   0  10   0
Pecos...........................  62  37  72  45 /  10   5   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  62  43  67  47 /  10   5   5   0
Red River.......................  58  31  64  36 /  20   5  10   0
Angel Fire......................  59  28  65  32 /  20   5  10   0
Taos............................  67  34  74  37 /  10   5   0   0
Mora............................  60  34  71  42 /  20   5   5   0
Espanola........................  72  41  79  44 /  10   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  65  42  74  48 /  10   5  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  68  39  77  47 /   5   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  50  78  56 /   5   5   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  47  79  54 /   5   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  47  81  52 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  47  80  54 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  75  45  82  49 /   5   5   5   5
Bernalillo......................  72  44  80  53 /   0   0   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  74  45  81  50 /   5   5   5   5
Corrales........................  73  46  81  53 /   0   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  74  46  81  51 /   5   5   5   5
Placitas........................  68  44  76  54 /   5   0   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  72  46  79  53 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  78  48  83  52 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  43  71  51 /   5   5   5   5
Tijeras.........................  64  40  74  51 /   5   5   5   5
Edgewood........................  64  34  76  47 /   5   5   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  32  76  44 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  34  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  66  39  74  47 /   5   5   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  65  37  73  47 /   5   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  69  41  76  53 /   5   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  57  38  70  49 /  10   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  55  32  73  41 /   5   0   5   0
Raton...........................  58  31  78  39 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  58  32  78  39 /   5  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  57  35  74  44 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  39  79  47 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  55  36  78  45 /   5   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  59  38  82  48 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  35  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  38  79  49 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  38  77  49 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  59  36  78  49 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  55  37  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  42  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  57  36  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  59  35  79  48 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ223-226-
239-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33