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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160541 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds across northern and central NM have decreased this evening
below criteria speeds. Therefore the wind highlights from today
have been expired or cancelled. The High Wind Warnings for later
tonight across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Central Highlands,
and Guadalupe County remain in effect.

Anand

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong to damaging winds continue through early tomorrow afternoon
in portions of eastern NM. Critical fire weather conditions return
tomorrow afternoon to eastern NM where a Red Flag Warning is in
effect. Winds weaken and temperatures rise mid-week. A backdoor
front ushers in a cooler and more moist airmass into eastern NM mid
to late week. Showers and a few storms will favor locations along
and east of the central mountain chain late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Axis of the 120kt 300mb jet will cross over NM this evening into
tonight as the Pacific fropa continues into TX. Amplified westerly
to northwesterly winds will prevail into the overnight period across
the high terrain, with the strongest winds favoring the Sangre de
Cristo Mts and their adjacent highlands. H7 flow along the northern
ridge of the central mts will peak out at 60kts around 09Z and as
such, will be capable of meeting High Wind Warning criteria
throughout the night. Moisture on the back end of the low may allow
for some isolated high terrain snow and low elevation rain in and
around the Tusas Mts this evening, tapering off by midnight. The
front will allow overnight temperatures to be a few to several
degrees colder than last night`s readings but most locales will
still be near to above average for mid April. A regime of
northwesterly flow aloft will take hold in the wake of the upper
low`s departure into the Great Plains. Winds across the central
highlands and a portion of their adjacent plains will have the
capability of meeting High Wind Warning criteria, though a bit
earlier than would be typical due to the transient nature of the
stronger winds aloft. Temperatures on Tuesday will rebound quickly,
with most locales seeing 5F to 10F of warming compared to Monday`s
readings. A calm and clear night will follow, with winds diminishing
and overnight lows be near to well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday will be a typical spring day with breezy westerly winds
and sunny skies. A backdoor front edges into northeastern NM
Wednesday night, surging dewpoints and increasing cloud coverage.
Increasing moisture will bring temps down a few degrees across
eastern NM, but temps will remain high across central and western
areas. Moisture will surge into the Rio Grande Valley by Friday
morning, but strong gap winds are not forecast at this time given
moderate westerly flow aloft. Winds may begin to increase Friday out
ahead of a trough pushing the moisture back east of the central
mountain chain. Showers and a few storms are possible Friday and
Saturday afternoons across eastern NM, but currently looks like
widespread cloud cover will limit thunderstorm coverage. CPC
continues to show a signal of above average precip. across the
state early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The primary aviation impacts for the next 12 to 18 hours will be
the result of strong winds, turbulence, and LLWS. Lower terrain
terminals have decoupled somewhat late this evening so winds will
remain relatively light overnights. However, LLWS will increase
given winds remain very strong aloft. Areas in the high terrain
and nearby highlands will remain gusty all night. Surface winds
will strengthen again quickly in all areas Tuesday morning with
gusts of 25 to 35 kt common by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY...

Northwest winds will peak early across the central highlands and
eastward on Tuesday, with the strongest gusts expected in and around
noon local time. While most locales will see improvement in regards
to moisture, min RH values will still fall into the teens and low
double digits. With the stronger winds and low humidity, did
maintain the previously issued Red Flag Warning for the central
highlands, northeast and east central plains. A weak backdoor front
will bring a northerly to easterly wind shift Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Drier conditions are expected all areas on Wednesday,
with widespread low double digit and single digit readings expected.
Single digit RH will persist for longer than 6 hours amongst some of
the denser fuels within the lower Rio Grande Valley, however winds
will be greatly reduced compared to magnitudes earlier in the week.
Some improvement will be seen to RH on Thursday across the
northeastern plains as a backdoor front surges southward and
westward. Elsewhere, however, widespread single digit RH will be the
norm which will allow elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions to exist. The improved moisture will spread southward
across the eastern plains on Friday, limiting critical fire weather
conditions. Showers and thunderstorms reenter the forecast for
eastern New Mexico and the northern mountains Friday night into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  35  69  37  75 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  27  67  29  71 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  30  64  34  71 /  10   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  27  68  30  74 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  30  63  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  29  68  30  75 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  30  65  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  33  65  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  29  72  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  39  75  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  25  61  30  64 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  35  65  41  71 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  32  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32  61  37  65 /   5   5   0   0
Red River.......................  25  58  28  60 /   5   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  58  22  62 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  27  66  30  71 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  32  64  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  37  72  37  78 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  34  66  41  72 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  34  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  42  71  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  40  72  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  75  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  40  73  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  39  77  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  41  74  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  75  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  40  74  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  75  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  40  69  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  40  73  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  43  79  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  64  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  38  67  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  37  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  69  32  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  33  65  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  37  68  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  37  68  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  43  72  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  40  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  35  69  37  73 /   0   5   0   0
Raton...........................  34  73  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  74  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  70  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  43  75  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  40  74  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  44  82  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  76  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  80  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  46  80  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  82  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  80  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  47  86  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  45  76  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  75  44  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ104-125-
126.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ214-215.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ223-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42