Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 211309
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
509 AM AKDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An active weather pattern will persist into the weekend for the
west coast of Alaska as a as series of fronts will bring periods
of strong winds, snow and blowing snow, as well as mixed
precipitation. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions with above normal
temperatures are anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong ridge of high pressure persists over the central and
eastern Interior while numerous shortwaves and frontal systems
impact the west coast and far western interior through Sunday. The
most amplified shortwave may bring precipitation as far east as
Fairbanks Friday night and Saturday morning. Temperatures at 850
mb will remain near 0 C until this point, bringing a mixed bag of
precipitation to any areas receiving precipitation. This shortwave
has strong cold air advection with it and precipitation Friday
evening through Saturday should be mostly snow. A warm front
moving north along the west coast from Bristol Bay Saturday
afternoon through Monday will likely bring a return of mixed
precipitation.

Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern aloft and
precipitation placement and amounts. We`ll use a blend of models
for the forecast and make few changes to the inherited forecast.
We will increase southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range this
afternoon through Friday afternoon to have peak gusts around 50
mph as the surface gradient increases to 7 mb as a shortwave
passes aloft.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Spring-like conditions continue with high temperatures rising
again today into the 20s in the Yukon Flats and into the 30s and
40s elsewhere. Temperatures continue to climb through Sunday,
with 30s and widespread 40s by then. Winds will be 15 mph or less
with the exception of Alaska Range passes, where southerly gap
winds may gust to 50 mph this afternoon through Friday afternoon.
The Upper Koyukuk Valley will see continued light snow through
today with minimal accumulation. There is a slight chance of
precipitation as far east as Fairbanks on Friday night and early
Saturday morning. If any precipitation falls in the central
Interior then, it will likely be snow, but there is a chance it
will be freezing rain as 850 mb temperatures hover just below 0 C.
Any precipitation that falls will be extremely light.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A low pressure system passing to the northwest will bring winds up
to 20 to 30 mph from Point Lay to Utqiagvik Friday night and
Saturday morning. Otherwise winds will be 15 mph or less away from
Brooks Range passes. Through Brooks Range passes, expect south
winds increasing today then gusting to 45 mph tonight and
Friday and diminishing Friday night. Areas of light snow are
expected west of Utqiagvik through Saturday. The heaviest
accumulations will be near Point Hope at around 4 inches.
Temperatures will continue to warm today and be well above normal
through Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A slough of hazards and Special Weather Statements remain in
effect as numerous frontal systems bring snow, blowing snow, and
mixed precipitation to the west coast and Lower Yukon Valley.
There will be short breaks between each system. The warm front
moving to the Yukon Delta this morning will exit the region to the
north late Friday evening and there will be a break until another
warm front arrives at the Yukon Delta mid-day Saturday. A cold
front on Friday night will bring temperatures back into the teens
and 20s from the Seward Peninsula north for Saturday. Temperatures
will remain above normal.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Strong southerly winds will result in elevated water levels along
the southern Seward Peninsula coast through Thursday. This will
cause water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push
water on top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the
ice or near the shore could become inundated with water. Ice
shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts along south-facing
coastlines.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

Ridging will persist but gradually weaken into the middle of next
week over the central and eastern Interior, bringing continued
above normal temperatures, albeit on a cooling trend. The weaker
ridge may allow for light precipitation beginning Monday or
Tuesday as shortwaves pass north over the Alaska Range through SE
flow. Precipitation looks to be very isolated, but with continued
warm temperatures aloft, it may not be all snow. On the West
Coast, the active weather pattern looks to continue with numerous
frontal systems bringing continued snow, blowing snow, and mixed
precipitation. The North Slope may see significant snowfall
beneath a deformation band during the early to middle part of
next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-830.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-808>811-850-852>856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

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