420
FXUS61 KALY 181050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
650 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring clouds and some
isolated to scattered showers to eastern New York and western New
England today. High pressure will build in tonight with clearing
skies and cool temperatures.  High pressure at the surface and aloft
will bring fair weather with above normal temperatures for Sunday
and into the middle of next week with the next chance of showers or
thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 650 AM EDT...A weakening mid and upper level trough is
over southern Quebec, the eastern Great Lakes and west-central
NY this morning. A sfc trough is focusing some light rain
showers over the western and southern Adirondacks and the
western Mohawk Valley this morning. A few hundredths have
occurred at the NYS Mesonet sites in the western Mohawk Valley.
The moisture convergence will continue to be meager with the
upper level trough and the sfc trough. We did keep low chances
of showers west of the Hudson River Valley in the morning and
slight chances along and to the east. The best nominal forcing
looks like it will be west and southwest of the Capital Region.

It will be mostly cloudy/cloudy today and the showers will be
more isolated in the afternoon...with a slightly better chance
over the eastern Catskills and western New England higher
terrain. Any rainfall will be light. Again...mainly cloudy and
dry conditions are expected for most of the region.

Max temps will run near to slightly below normal with all the
clouds and isolated/widely scattered showers around. Max temps
were accepted close to a NAM MOS/ECM MOS blend with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys with upper 50s to mid 60s
over the higher terrain. The winds will be light and variable in
direction at less than 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The isolated to scattered showers will end with the
skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy, except across
western New England. Some lingering clouds and light drizzle or
spotty light showers may linger especially close to the CT River
Valley with a 1020 hPa sfc anticyclone building in over eastern
New England with the onshore flow due to the high (and also an
oceanic Atlantic low) will likely keep the pesky clouds in
place. Some patchy fog may also form. Lows fall off into the mid
40s to around 50F over the higher terrain and 50-55F in the
valleys.

The 2nd half of the weekend will feature partly to mostly sunny
conditions with a mid and upper level ridge folding into the
region. Mid and upper level heights increase. H500 heights from
the latest NAEFS are +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal over most of
the region by late Sunday. H850 temps also nose above normal a
standard deviation or two. Max temps will rise above normal in
the mid to upper 70s in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys and
60s to lower 70s over the mtns and across most of western New
England. The ridge will continue to build in from the lower MS
River Valley/Midwest into the Northeast Sunday night. High
pressure will build in from the OH Valley and PA with near ideal
radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear-partly cloudy
skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

Monday will begin with above normal temps with the ridge at the
sfc and aloft. Max temps will increase to 10 degrees or so above
normal with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. High temps
will be in the 80-85F range in the valleys, and 70s over the
mtns with partly to mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be
milder than Sunday night with lows in the 50s to around 60F with
mostly clear conditions and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with upper ridging over the
eastern US and high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast to
our southeast. This will result in warm advection into our region.
850 mb temperatures will reach +15 to +17C, which will translate to
high temperatures in the upper 70s for the high terrain and
temperatures well into the 80s for the valleys. Therefore, Tuesday
will likely be the warmest day of the year so far for most of the
region. Tuesday does not look too humid with dew points mainly in
the 50s, so "feels like" temperatures are expected to be similar to
the actual temperature, maxing out in the upper 80s. There may be a
few more clouds around in the afternoon and evening especially north
of I-90 as the ridge undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a
weakening shortwave tracks along its northern periphery. However,
lack of moisture and warm temperatures aloft should keep any showers
or thunderstorms isolated in nature and limited mainly to the ADKs.
Tuesday night should also be mainly dry with temperatures dropping
into the upper 50s to around 60 for the high terrain to mid 60s for
the valleys.

Wednesday and Thursday...By 12z Wednesday, a strong surface low will
form over the middle of the country in association with deep upper
troughing over the upper Midwest. The upper trough closes off and
the tracks in tandem with the surface low through the Great Lakes
region and into southeastern Canada during the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe, with the trailing cold front tracking through our region.
The exact timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but recent
trends in guidance have been to delay the frontal passage until
Wednesday night or Thursday. The timing of the front will influence
the coverage of showers/storms. We will have to watch trends over
the next several days, as a cold frontal passage that aligns with
peak diurnal heating could result in some stronger thunderstorms.
Will include chance PoPs Wednesday evening through Thursday due to
the timing uncertainty. With the cold front trending slower,
Wednesday looks to be another warm day with highs similar to if not
a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Fortunately, dew points
look to be mainly in the 50s to around 60 again so feel like
temperatures are currently expected to once again top out in the
upper 80s. Lows will me mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. Highs
Thursday should be a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday,
with the warmest temperatures (mid 80s) south and east of the
Capital District.

Thursday night through Saturday...We dry out as the cold front moves
off to our east and we see northwesterly winds advecting cooler and
drier air into the region. Friday should therefore be mostly dry.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s
(valleys) with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Saturday, another
low pressure system may track near the region, although some
guidance keeps it and any associated showers to our south. Looking
to days 8-14, the CPC is expecting near normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...All sites seeing VFR conditions, which will
prevail through at least this evening for most TAF sites. Radar
shows a few showers that could move over GFL for the first hour or
two of the TAF period so have included a tempo for MVFR vsby
reductions with these showers. All other sites stay VFR through this
morning with BKN to OVC mid and high clouds. A few isolated showers
are expected this afternoon, mainly for the Hudson Valley TAF sites,
so have included VCSH groups. Showers will be isolated in nature,
but could result in brief MVFR vsby reductions if they move over one
of the TAF sites.

Showers taper off this evening with some breaks in the clouds
developing briefly, but clouds likely fill back in overnight. At
ALB/GFL, VFR conditions should persist through at least the end of
the TAF period. At POU and PSF, some MVFR stratus is expected to
develop overnight tonight due to light easterly flow. Greatest
chance for low stratus appears to be at PSF. If/when the low stratus
develops, it will likely stick around until the end of the TAF
period.

Winds will be at 5 kt or less through this morning, increasing to 5-
10 kt from the east this afternoon into early tonight. Some gusts to
around 15 kt are expected at PSF this afternoon and evening. Winds
become light and variable again tonight by 3z at ALB/GFL/POU and
after 6z at PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main