Text Products for ESF Issued by ALY

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS71 KALY 291910
ESFALY
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-025-071915-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...Flood threat is near to below normal for the next two weeks...

The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Eastern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Above normal
temperatures and near term precipitation forecasts also lend to
the possibility of river rises for the first portion of the
outlook period. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood
potential is considered below normal due to the lack of snowpack.
As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the
month of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent
below to much below normal for this time of year. Due to lack of
river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential This map does
not address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the fifth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from February 29th
through March 14th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow depth and snow water equivalent are both well below normal
across the ALY CWA.

Snowpack and snow depth are well below normal across the ALY CWA.
Snow depth reports across the higher terrain of the Southern
Adirondacks range from 9” to 12” with an estimated liquid water
equivalent of 2-4” with isolated pockets of 4-5” of SWE. Foothills
of the Adirondacks are carrying a snow pack of about 4” to 7” and
2-4” of SWE. Far eastern Bennington County, VT/Southern Greens
are carrying 8” to 10” of snow pack with an estimated SWE of 3-4”.
No other snow pack of hydrologic significance across the ALY CWA.

...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New
York are generally above normal to much above normal. Per USGS
monitoring wells, groundwater levels are primarily at or above
normal with a few monitoring locations below normal. Palmer
drought severity remains much wetter than normal for the entire
outlook area. New York State Mesonet observations show soil
temperatures above freezing at all depths.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

Warmer than normal temperatures have not supported significant
river ice growth. USGS Mohawk River ice jam cameras show open
water. Northeast River Forecast Center calculations suggest the
area is widely void of river ice, with a few spots in the southern
Adirondacks possibly up to 6 inches thick, which is certainly
below normal for this time of year. No threat for ice jams or ice
jam flooding is currently forecast in the two week outlook period.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoir levels are above normal for this time of year.
Wet conditions over the past month have kept system storage well
above normal. Total storage is currently at 93.9 percent of
capacity, or 3.4 percent above normal capacity for this time of
year.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels are
a mixture of above and below normal for this time of year. The
Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 14 feet above normal for this
time of year. Elsewhere in the District, reservoir levels are +/-
1.5 to 2.5 feet of normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day (for March 5 to 9) and 8 to 14 day (for March 7
to 13) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks both call for
above normal precipitation. Temperature trends lean strongly
towards being above normal in the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day
outlook.

...SUMMARY...

The flood potential is considered near normal for portions of the
Southern Adirondacks, as well as Eastern VT/Southern Green
Mountains, where snowpack remains in place. Above normal
temperatures and near term precipitation forecasts also lend to
the possibility of river rises for the first portion of the
outlook period. Elsewhere throughout the Albany CWA, the flood
potential is considered below normal due to the lack of snowpack.
As a whole, warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the
month of February have kept the snowpack and snow water equivalent
below to much below normal for this time of year. Due to lack of
river ice, ice jams are not currently forecasted to be a threat.

Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our web
page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

Flooding can happen at any time of year - stay informed at
www.weather.gov/albany and follow us on Twitter @NWSAlbany

$$

dm
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
