Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Latest 08Z obs to start this morning shows light and variable sfc
winds across the Panhandles as we are downstream of a low
amplitude H500 ridge. This aforementioned ridge will traverse
east with its main axis across the central Plains later today. In
its wake, H500 zonal flow across the Continental Divide will
develop a lee sfc trough this afternoon. This will bring breezy
conditions to the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon. As a
result, watching for elevated fire weather conditions for the SW
TX Panhandle. Otherwise, southwest surface flow will allow high
temperatures to reach well into the 70s for many locations today.
Going into the day tomorrow, high temperatures will range from
the mid 70s to mid 80s across the Panhandles. As H500 flow has
more of WSW/SW directional shift, along with the main H300 jet
aloft placing the Panhandles within an area of large scale
subsidence throughout the day, dry conditions will prevail. With
WAA established throughout the short term forecast period in the
region, low temps tonight and tomorrow night will remain above
average for this time of year.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

We continue to watch the latest 28/00Z model and numerical
guidance as a strong low moving south along the California
coastline over the weekend becomes an upper level trough as it
enters into the SW CONUS by early next week. Further east across
the Panhandles, SW sfc-500 flow will become more apparent as we
go through the weekend. Especially by Sunday, height falls will be
quite rapid resulting in a resultant SW sfc flow where near
headline winds will be possible on Sunday as skies clear out in
the afternoon across the western Panhandles and again on Monday,
enhanced by a Pacific front. With low RH values and some breezy to
nearly strong winds, in-conjunction with a thermal ridge
diurnally driven each day, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will be have to watched closely, especially on Sunday.
High temperatures on Saturday through Monday will be well above
average with manly locations well into the 80s for high
temperatures. A cold front will move south from the central Plains
into the Panhandles early next week, bringing rain chances for
some Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures behind the front
will drop to below average and should remain in this sub below
average probabilistic range for the remainder of the long term
forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Primary potential hazard to fliers over the next 24 hours is the
potential for low level wind shear in the surface to 1000 foot
layer over the eastern three quarters of the area between 03z and
14z, including at AMA/GUY. Over time, low level jet looks to
subside and surface winds will increase following sunrise,
reducing LLWS. Otherwise, expect some southwesterly gusts to
around 30 knots this afternoon.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With gusty winds out of the SW of 15 to 25 mph, coupled with min
RH values around 13 to 15 percent, will have to watch for
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for the SW Texas
Panhandle. Will have to watch for elevated to critical fire
weather conditions for the western half of the combined Panhandles
tomorrow. Min RH values will drop to around 10 percent by
tomorrow afternoon with 20 ft winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph. Max RFTI values tomorrow will be as high as 3 to 4
along with ERC values favoring the southern Texas Panhandle in
the 40th to near 50th percentile.

Looking ahead from Saturday into Monday, elevated to critical
fire weather conditions will also be possible with trends being
monitored closely.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  80  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  45  80  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              38  75  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  48  84  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              43  81  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  45  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               47  82  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 36  78  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  40  78  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                43  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                48  82  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   48  82  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  79  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  79  45  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...77


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