Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 190837
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...Near-Critical RHs Today...

.DISCUSSION...Near-critical RHs will be possible this afternoon for areas along
and east of I-75 -- with RHs in the 30-40 percent range anticipated
elsewhere. With how aggressive mixing occurs across downloping
areas, localized critical RHs cannot be ruled out for a few hours
this afternoon. West winds will increase through the morning,
reaching speeds between 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph at times
this afternoon and evening. High temperatures are expected to stay
in the mid 40s to low 50s today. Recent rainfall has moistened
fuels, lessening fire danger heading into the weekend.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....45-50...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 22 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2238).
Mixing Height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400. Slight chance of snow
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (136).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 6 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1368).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....48-53...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent drier...except 39 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2125).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.15 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....31-36.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (106).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....45-50...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1553).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2332).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers.
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 28 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (187).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1259).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-192015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 38-43 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 22 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2330).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (199).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1274).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
437 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2351).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....29-34.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (141).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1468).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC
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