028
FXUS63 KARX 051926
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
226 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers from Tuesday through Friday. Best chance
  for rain at this point is early Tuesday morning and again
  Wednesday through Thursday.

- Cooler air settles in after midweek, but overall look for
  seasonal temperatures into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Active Weather Pattern Next Week:

Shortwave ridging will be over the area through Monday. As this
ridging comes to an end, an area of low pressure will move through
the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Convection will increase in
coverage in the Plains during the day on Monday. Eventually a line
of showers and thunderstorms will form by Monday evening across the
Central Plains. This line is expected to move through the area
during the overnight hours between Monday night and Tuesday morning.
When the line moves across the region, instability will be pretty
limited, as a couple hundred joules of CAPE is all there will be.
The trough bringing the low into the region will also become
negatively tilted as the precipitation moves into the area and
will eventually become an elongated low providing us with zonal
flow. With these things considered, as well as the timing of
when these storms arrive, no severe weather will be associated
with this line. All of the severe weather will be to our
southeast into the Ohio River Valley.

The previously mentioned elongated low is expected to stick
around through Thursday and in doing so, a couple shortwaves
will shoot off from this low and provide the area with some more
rain chances. The first opportunity is Tuesday afternoon and
into the evening. Then a small break in rain chances from
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as shortwave ridging builds
in ahead of a strengthening shortwave that will move through
Wednesday into Thursday. Model guidance shows this shortwave
stalling over our area for a little bit as the parent elongated
low shifts westward and a shortwave trough moves down from the
north. By Thursday, this shortwave will absorb into the
shortwave trough and move out Thursday afternoon. Given that
these smaller scale synoptic patterns can change, confidence is
not high in how the shortwaves and shortwave trough will
interact. There is good agreement however, that this pattern
will give the area periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. With this northerly flow pattern, cooler
air will move through and thus temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 50s to mid 60s from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

CIGS: SKC conditions for the most part through Monday morning.
Clouds will then be on the increase for Monday afternoon/night ahead
of the next upper level shortwave, likely dropping into MVFR
overnight.

WX/vsby: not anticipating any fog concerns (valley in specific)
tonight. Rain returns overnight Mon, with some embedded thunder
possible. Likely drop into MVFR vsbys with the rain.

WINDS: light and mostly variable into this evening, picking up from
the southeast overnight/Mon morning. Could see some afternoon/eve
gusts Mon into the lower 20 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Rieck