Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 241831
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
131 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An impactful winter storm expected to affect the area into
  Tonight.

- Monday and Monday Night will be warmer with periodic rain
  showers.

- Colder air will move into the region on Tuesday. Rain will
  change over to snow. Little snow accumulations expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Tonight - Snow changing to rain

The warm front will lift northward across the northern half of the
forecast area. The combination of 850 mb moisture transport and
isentropic lift will result in a snow band lifting northward across
the area. The 24.12z HREF continues to show that the hourly snow
rates in this band will likely (50-80 percent probabilities) exceed
1 inch per hour. These higher snow rates will likely over any given
area for up to a 2-hour period. As far as snow totals, they look
rather similar to the ones that we sent out yesterday. The only
changes were to north-central Wisconsin where the ranges look to be
coming in on the lower end of guidance.

The meso models and CAMS are in fairly good agreement that the
850 mb 0C isotherm will near the Interstate 90 around 25.01z,
Interstate 94 around 25.04z, and in Taylor County around 25.07z.
As this warmer air aloft moves northward the snow will
transition to rain.

Another shortwave trough will move northeast across the area during
overnight. This narrow band of precipitation will be in the form of
rain. Additional rain totals will be up to a tenth of an inch.
Depending on surface temperatures overnight, there may be some light
icing in north-central Wisconsin.

Monday and Monday Night - Scattered rain showers

A combination of 850 mb moisture transport and a series of weak
shortwaves moving northward will provide periodic showers. The
24.12z HREF 24-hour QPF ensemble mean is anywhere from a 0.25
and 0.75 inches, 0.5 to 1 inch for southeast Minnesota and
southwest and central Wisconsin, and between 1 and 1.5 inches
for Clark and Taylor counties in north-central Wisconsin.

With more showers expected, the high temperatures are slightly
cooler for Monday south of Interstate 94 with highs in the lower and
mid-50s. Meanwhile, there was very little chance for the rest of
the area with highs in the mid and- upper 40s.

Tuesday - Rain changing back to snow with little accumulations
expected

On Tuesday morning, a cold front will move east through the area.
Strong cold air advection it`s wake will cause temperatures to
slowly fall throughout the day. As this occurs, the wrap-around
moisture will gradually change over to snow. With this occurring
about 6 to 12-hours later than it looked yesterday, snow amounts
look to be anywhere from a dusting to a half-inch.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday - May be some scattered snow
showers in north-central Wisconsin

A 500 mb trough will remain across the Great Lakes. The combination
of cyclonic flow and low level moisture will keep skies mostly
cloudy north of Interstate 94. There may be just enough moisture in
Taylor County (north-central Wisconsin) for a maybe a few snow
showers. Confidence was not high enough to include these in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Through much of the afternoon, KRST is expected to see
visibilities of around a 1/2 mile due to snow and fog. The MVFR
visibilities at KLSE will likely become LIFR/IFR around 24.20z
and then persist through 25.01z. Hourly snow rates of 1 inch or
greater are likely (50-80 percent probabilities) at the TAFs
between 24.22z and 25.00z. Around 25.01z, the temperatures will
warm enough aloft that the snow will transition to rain. As this
occurs, the rain will quickly changeover to scattered showers.
Totals snow will likely range from 3 to 6 inches at KRST and 2
to 4 inches KLSE.

For the remainder of the TAF period, ceilings will be primarily
IFR to MVFR and visibilities will be VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ053.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for WIZ032>034.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ041>044.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ094>096.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ079.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ086>088.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne


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