Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 230325
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1025 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

At 3 PM, a 1031 mb surface high, centered over northern Lower
Michigan, continued to provide light winds and partly to mostly
sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

On Monday, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around 12C. This will
allow temperatures to warm well into the 60s.  There may be
even be a few lower 70s in the river valleys.

Also on Monday, the MOS dew points seem to be a bit too high, so
lowered them by 3 to 5F. This resulted in the afternoon relative
humidity values falling into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

For Tuesday, the GFS and some of the CAMs continue to produce
scattered rain showers during the afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF,
Canadian, and NAM are showing no phasing between a northern and
southern stream system. As a result, they keep the area dry.
With these differences, opted to keep a small chance of rain west
of Highway 218 in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, and
north of Interstate 94 in central Wisconsin. In the wake of this
front, colder air will spill back into the area. High temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday will range from the mid 50s to lower
60s.

On Thursday afternoon and evening, another Canadian cold front
will move through the region. The lift and saturation looks much
better along and ahead of this front, so this looks to be our best
chance of rain during the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions will continue at both KRST/KLSE through the period.
Despite clear skies and light winds overnight, dry near surface
air will preclude any fog development. Skies will be mostly sunny
through Monday. Winds through the period will be light from the
east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Flood warnings are in effect for the Trempealeau River at Dodge
with minor flooding expected this week. See the latest flood
statements for more information.

As the recent snow melts and runs off into area streams,
additional flooding will be possible, including parts of the
Mississippi River, with additional details in the latest
hydrologic statement.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Rochester is making a run at 60 degree mark today. They have
climbed to 58 degrees. If they do not make it today, they may
make reach or exceed it on either Monday or Tuesday. They are
currently tied with 1965 for the 4th latest date. The third latest
date is April 23 in 1975. The latest date is April 26 back in
1951 and 2013.

For those that may have not seen our Facebook and Twitter posts,
we looked back at this day in 1980. We were in midst of an early
season heat. Temperatures warmed into the lower and mid 90s south
of Interstate 94. Both La Crosse (91F on April 21 and 93F on April
22) and Rochester (91F on both days) set daily high temperatures
on April 21 and 22. It reached 100F at both Fort Dodge and
Waterloo Iowa on April 22. This was the earliest 100-degree
temperature in a year for Iowa. The 93F in La Crosse tied April 29
1910 for the warmest temperature in April.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rogers
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne


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