Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS63 KARX 172345
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Focus is on incoming storm system which will bring snow to the area
from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. GOES-East water
vapor imagery shows the incoming storm currently crossing the MT/WY
Rockies. This wave will continue to chug east through the Plains
tonight and then along the IL/WI border during the day Wednesday.

Model diagnostics bring a potent lobe of PV-advection and increasing
upper level difluence into the area early to mid-morning along with
NAM showing a respectable 2-5km MUCAPE axis nosing into northeast
IA/far southwest WI. This will lead to a few thunderstorms down
across that area with perhaps some sleet mixing in with moderate to
heavy snow rates. This forcing shifts east of the area by afternoon
with the area slipping into the deformation area of the mid-level
low in the afternoon/evening.

Current total snowfall amount thinking is for 3 to 8 inches with the
highest amounts extending from northeast IA into central WI. As a
result, Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have
been posted. See the Warnings, Watches, and Advisories section below
or see our internet homepage at www.weather.gov/lacrosse for latest
headline details.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Things are looking up in the extended as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds across the region. Daytime temperatures warm from
the 40s on Thursday to well into the middle 50s/near 60 by Monday.
Nighttime lows look to be in the 20s/30s. With these warming
temperatures, look for significant melting of the snowpack in place
across the area. This will have an impact on runoff and hydrology
concerns. More detail on this is highlighted below in the Hydrology
section. A chance of rain enters the picture Monday night into
Tuesday as a mid-level trough and surface cold front push
southeastward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Mostly clear VFR conditions will be the rule at KRST/KLSE this
evening and into the overnight. Then, expect a rapid worsening of
conditions by mid-morning Wednesday with the advancement of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and light snow. Visibility is expected to drop
as low as 1 SM by Wednesday afternoon with periods of moderate/
heavy snow. Snowfall rates could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour.
Light northeast winds through Wednesday morning will increase and
turn to the north by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Warming temperatures will produce significant melting of the
snowpack in place across the area, leading to a good amount of
runoff into area streams and rivers. Besides the Trempealeau River
at Dodge possibly exceeding flood stage this weekend, the rest of
the area streams and rivers are expected to just see significant
within-bank rises. Those with interests or property close to
streams and rivers will want to stay up to date on latest river
forecasts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for WIZ032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for WIZ043-044.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for MNZ086-087-094-095.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for MNZ079-088-096.

IA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...Rogers
HYDROLOGY...DAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.