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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200548
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain
or even snow showers possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A
dry stretch of weather is finally expected Sunday through
Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the evening updates, cut back on precipitation coverage
given the radar and modeling trends throughout the night.
Forecast discussion below still mainly on track.

255 PM Update:

A passing frontal boundary continues to bring some rain showers
to the area. An initial batch of light rain showers is quickly
moving east of I-81, but another batch of showers will be
entering the area from Western NY later this afternoon into this
evening. These light showers will move eastward through the area
overnight. Even though these showers will quickly move eastward,
plenty of low level moisture will result in lingering clouds and
area of drizzle. Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the
40s.

The cold front exits the area to the east on Saturday, which
will result in initially mostly sunny skies in the morning.
However, a secondary shortwave, combined with diurnally-driven
instability will result in a resurgence of rain showers in the
afternoon. Enough cold air aloft may be present for small hail
or graupel to mix with these showers. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which on the cool side compared to
normal for this time of the year.

Saturday night, high pressure starts to build into the area.
This, combined with the loss of diurnal heating, will allow for
rain showers to quickly dissipate after sunset and skies to
clear. Lows are expected to be in the 30s for the majority of
the area, with some upper 20s possible in the usual colder spots
of the Catskills and northern Oneida county.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Surface ridging and an upper level trough will be over the
region on Sunday. Brisk northwest flow regime will keep
temperatures on the cool side Sunday afternoon, with highs only
in the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Those NW
winds will increase Sunday afternoon as a dry cold front drops
out of Canada, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the
region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s across the region.

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough
stubbornly hangs around. Main changes made to NBM this period
was for surface dew points were decreased several degrees due to
the dry airmass overhead. RH values will likely dip into the mid
20 percent range during peak heating Monday afternoon. Also, NBM
winds are way overdone with the bulk of the model guidance
having a surface high pushing overhead, so wind gusts were
reduced Monday afternoon. The center of the high will be over
the region Monday night, which should allow for radiational
cooling to drop temps into the low to mid 30s, even with warmer
air aloft building into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM Update

No major changes have been made to the long term portion of the
forecast. Models continue to be consistent with the next storm
system. This system is expected to move into the region
sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance has some
minor timing differences, but overall agreement is good that a trough
will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a surface low
that will pass north of us. A surface cold front extending from
the low will bring rain showers across the region Wednesday.

The GFS and some ensembles have a secondary shortwave that will
fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern rotates
from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a reinforcing
shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE portion of the
CWA as light showers hang around in this scenario. The center
of the upper low/trough is overhead Thursday, and this will keep temps
cold with lingering rain/snow showers. However, it should be
noted that the Euro pulls the upper trough/low out much faster
with ridging building in Thursday, and this will drastically
change the forecast if this pans out. For now, due to the
uncertainty at the end of the week, decided to stay with the NBM
solution. The NBM has no PoPs at this time for Thursday, so
something to watch as the forecast progresses into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR conditions will linger at AVP and BGM longer as low moisture
has been slow to exit the area. Ceilings should rise to MVFR by
8-9z, then VFR just before sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail
for the rest of the TAF period.

VFR conditons expected at all other terminals through the TAF
period. Some scattered rain showers are expected to develop
across the area during the afternoon, but should not introduce
any restrictions.


Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...JTC