Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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615 FXUS63 KBIS 090545 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday through the weekend. - Confidence is increasing that more widespread precipitation chances will return to the region during the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Shower activity tonight looks to be closer to the upper low to our south. Thus have removed shower mention through the night. A band of lower to mid level clouds is currently moving from north to south. This could continue through the night, although showers are not expected from these. Made some minor sky adjustments to account for this ongoing band of clouds. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A few light showers continue to move through far northern and southern portions of the area, which continue to be reflected well in going forecast. Therefore, only minimal changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A few showers continue to rotate around the low over far southern North Dakota, and over far north central into northwest North Dakota. Previous forecast reflected this quite well, so only change was to adjust precipitation chances a little bit based on current trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. During this time, the area will remain in cyclonic flow resulting in continued isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening, especially in the northwest. There remains a low chance that a thunderstorm or two could creep up into the southern James River Valley of ND later today. However, the best thunderstorm potential looks to remain south of the forecast area. For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. A weak trailing shortwave will flatten the ridge and bring a 20 percent chance of showers primarily to western ND Thursday afternoon. A few showers could then continue in southwestern to central ND during the evening. Beyond that, conditions look mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft becomes northwesterly. During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week. Regardless, the main thing is that starting Sunday night, multiple waves of energy may bring precipitation to the forecast area. A lack of agreement means exact details on timing, precipitation totals, and thunderstorm potential are not yet known. Temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend into this weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s. By the weekend, however, most locations should see low to mid 70 degree readings. A cooling trend is then favored to start the next workweek as aforementioned troughing may bring cooler air to the region. That said, NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads remain semi-large (around 10 degrees) for high temperatures next week, so some uncertainty certainly does exist. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Shower chances through tonight have diminished. Thursday could see a few isolated afternoon and evening showers, although confidence was not high enough to include these in the TAFs at this time. A band of lower to mid level clouds will push from north to south tonight. SCT to perhaps BKN cloud coverage could then remain through Thursday. Ceilings for these are expected to be at VFR heights throughout the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Anglin