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000
FXUS61 KBTV 121959
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected to continue into tomorrow with some
strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon, which
could bring gusty winds. A cold front will allow for some
mountain rain showers to mix with or change to snow tonight and
tomorrow morning. Continued shower activity is expected
throughout the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Forecast Focus: Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.

Breaks in clouds have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s and
70s for some today for some. This will provide extra
instability for low topped thunderstorms to develop and move
across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. It`s only a
narrow slice of time where the wind shear and 300-400 J/kg
surface based CAPE will overlap favorably for storms, but it
should be just enough to bring a line of thunderstorms pivoting
west to northeast across northern New York and Vermont. Within
this line, isolated to strong thunderstorms with locally gusty
winds are possible, and a brief weak tornado is not out of the
question. However, most dew points remain in the 40s and 50s,
and lapse rates are not impressive, which will limit our
instability potential.

Additional QPF over the next 12 hours will amount to roughly 0.05-
0.75", highly dependent on where thunderstorms occur and if any
thunderstorms train. Multiple rivers are at bankful, and the Ausable
River at Ausable Forks has reached Minor Flood Stage. We`re
expecting it to return to Action Stage late this evening. Other
small streams could produce some flooding of low lying areas like
farm fields. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could also could some
isolated flash flooding.

Winds will continue to be breezy, however, a low level jet streak
will move away from our forecast area, leaving southerly wind gusts
around 20-30 knots for the rest of the day and much of the overnight
period. Thunderstorm risk will drop off tonight as a cold front
comes through and drops lows into the mid-30s to mid-40s. Some
higher elevation areas will see rain showers turning to rain/snow
mixed showers or even snow showers. Tomorrow will be cooler with
continued rain showers as low pressure crosses the forecast
area. Then, chilly lows in the 30s for tomorrow night as
conditions dry out. Overall, only minor snow accumulations
expected at higher elevations, perhaps a few inches at most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Showers will again develop across NY
on Sunday and spread into Vermont Sunday afternoon as another
shortwave rotates around the main low centered to our north.
Showers will quickly exit Sunday night and the trough pushes
through. Day time highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. Overall, QPF will be
minimal on Sunday, just a couple tenths of an inch or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Moving into next week, things will
remain unsettled as the low to our north sends another
shortwave through on Monday, although at this time, it looks
like most the precipitation will be along the higher terrain.
The mid- week will see a brief reprieve as ridging will bring
dry condition for Tuesday and early Wednesday before another low
pressure system moves in Wednesday night, bringing us multiple
rounds of precipitation for the back half of the week. Overall,
temperatures will continue to be more spring-like with highs in
the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...The strongest winds have moved through,
but will continue to gust at 20 to 25 knots through most of the
forecast period. The rain showers and thunderstorms are
currently moving through and bringing MVFR conditions through
most of the terminals. Showers should weaken overnight before
revamping tomorrow. Overall, expect most stations to bounce
between MVFR and VFR with KMSS seeing some IFR conditions as
showers increase again tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain showers with the possibility of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.05-0.75" but could be highly dependent on
thunderstorms. The remaining snow pack is mainly above 2000
foot elevation. There`s not much left to melt below 2000 ft, but
the higher summits still have plenty of snow, and we lost about
0.50-1.00" of snow water equivalent in the existing pack last
night. Saturated soils will likely result in more run- off into
rivers. Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1) is currently
forecast to remain within its banks while the East Branch of
the Ausable at Ausable Forks (ASFN6) is in Minor Flood Stage.
Any additional snowmelt or rainfall beyond present forecast
expectations could send additional rivers into minor flooding
and other main stem rivers towards bankfull. Beyond river
flooding, several rounds of rain and snowmelt could result in
ponding and localized flooding along low-lying farm fields.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy
HYDROLOGY...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV