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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 120806
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
206 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

Warm and mainly dry conditions can be expected for most areas
through Saturday with high pressure over the region. Moisture and
some weak energy will rotate into the area this afternoon and
evening on the west side of the ridge, and again on Saturday,
associated with an upper low spinning along the West Coast.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
can be expected over western into central areas this afternoon
and evening, and again on Saturday. Shower/thunderstorm chances of
25% or less can be expected for most areas. Breezy southwest to
west winds over the western foothills today will decrease into
the evening.

High temperatures in the 70s can be expected today and Saturday.
Livingston may approach the record high of 74 degrees today, last
set in 2016. STP

Sunday through Friday...

Sunday will be another warm day with high temperatures in the 70s
to 80 degF. Along with the warm temperatures, decent atmospheric
moisture and diurnal instability will allow for the chance of
scattered rain showers once again during the afternoon and evening
(15-40%), with a rumble or two of thunder not out of the question
(overall low chance).

While Monday will still see above normal temperatures (highs in
the 60s to 70 degF), it will mark the beginning of a pattern
change to cooler and wetter weather across the area. This pattern
change is being driven by two areas of low pressure which will
interact to some extent by mid-week. How this interaction develops
will determine the extent of precipitation across the area, and
uncertainty remains with this still tonight. This means the total
QPF percentile spread remains large as well. Where ensemble
forecasts have shown consistency is in the timing of the cold air
arrival, with the coldest air (highs around 40F) arriving Tuesday
night and lasting through Thursday. This means potential winter
weather impacts will be delayed until late Tuesday through
Thursday over the lower elevations with this system. Before this,
rain is favored over the lower elevations, with snow levels
dropping from near 8000ft to 4500ft Monday into Tuesday. While
precipitation does not look significant at this time, just
beneficial for this time of year, the foothills and mountains do
have a moderate (50-75% chance) to see at least half an inch of
liquid (rain/melted snow) Monday through Thursday morning.

Along with the precipitation and colder temperatures, windy
conditions look to prevail Tuesday (east of Billings), Wednesday
(across the area), and Thursday (east of Billings) with wind gusts
in the 30s to 40 mph (low to zero chance to exceed 40 mph). The
combination of these conditions may bring about hazardous winter
conditions for those with outdoor plans and for young livestock,
so continue to monitor the forecast for updates as details become
clearer. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A weak
disturbance lifting into the region will bring isolated to
scattered showers, and a few weak thunderstorms to western and
central areas this afternoon into the evening, including VC KLVM,
KBIL and KSHR. Southwest to west gusts near KLVM and K6S0 will
increase to 25-35 kts this morning, decreasing this evening. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 046/075 045/077 047/070 042/055 033/042 027/042
    2/T 22/T    21/U    23/R    55/O    56/S    44/S
LVM 072 044/072 042/072 041/064 037/049 027/037 021/039
    2/T 22/T    11/U    23/R    67/O    66/S    33/S
HDN 077 042/076 043/078 045/072 041/057 031/044 025/044
    1/U 11/U    11/U    23/R    55/R    56/S    44/S
MLS 076 044/075 045/079 047/072 044/056 034/043 026/041
    1/U 10/U    11/U    11/B    34/R    45/S    43/S
4BQ 075 044/076 044/080 047/071 043/056 032/043 025/041
    1/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    43/R    35/S    33/S
BHK 071 043/075 043/077 045/072 042/056 030/042 023/038
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/B    34/R    45/S    43/S
SHR 074 043/075 041/077 041/067 040/054 028/040 021/040
    2/W 21/U    10/U    14/R    55/R    66/S    44/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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