Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 222044
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
244 PM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Saturday Afternoon...

A subtle presence of warm air advection and weak upslope flow has
allowed light snow to persist across much of central MT
throughout today, and this will continue to be the case through
Saturday morning as an overrunning surge of mid-level moisture
across eastern MT will continue to keep a persistent band of light
snow alive through this period. Accumulations will be minimal,
but be wary of periods of brief visibility reductions when
driving.

Northeast winds are here to stay for the next few days, and will
keep this cold air in the area. While lows tonight will be any
lower than yesterday`s lows (due to ample cloud cover)
temperatures will continue to slowly decrease over the coming
days.

The big change comes late on Saturday as a dynamic low cross the
central Rockies and brings a surge of snow, strong winds, and
colder temperatures to the area. Currently we look to have the
dry slot of it Saturday afternoon, so the majority of its impacts
won`t occur until at least Saturday night. More on this winter
storm in the next discussion.

Vertz

Saturday night through Friday...

.Key Messages...

... Significant winter storm hitting the area Saturday night into
Sunday with warning level impacts likely (>70%) across much of
the area.

... Cold temperatures come in behind the snow storm with
widespread single digit lows and subzero lows possible (60%) for
locations along the Dakotas border Monday night.

... Wednesday through the rest of the week a return to more
seasonable temperatures.

A low pressure center will setup in NE Colorado by Saturday
evening, bring a strong winter storm to Montana. Heavy snow across
the area is likely (>70%), with a Winter Storm Warning in effect
for the eastern counties. These areas will see the heaviest
snowfall along with gusty winds of 30-40 mph. The combination of
these two will result in near-blizzard conditions, specifically in
Fallon and Carter Counties. For those planning travel, now is the
time to consider making alternate arrangements and prepping your
vehicle for very difficult travel conditions.

The onset of this event will begin Saturday evening from west to
east. Snow accumulations are expected to be confined to grassy
surfaces initially, with day time temperatures in the 30s/40s and
road temperatures above freezing. Anyone traveling Saturday should
anticipate wet/slick roads from melting snow on the surface. As
cold air rushes into the state overnight Saturday, the best period
for ascent and deep DGZs, will take place early afternoon on
SUnday. Model soundings show DGZs of nearly 10,000ft, along with
snow ratios around 18:1, localized snowfall could near a foot in
along the Dakota borders.

For the rest of the area, a Winter Storm Watch continues into the
south and central zones, 4-8 inches of snow is possible with wind
gusts up to 30 mph. Model trends have continued to bring the line
of 6+ inches of snow further south. Confidence in reaching
warning levels is not high enough quite yet to make an upgrade,
however it is possible an upgrade will be needed later. Surface
level winds will begin turning around Sunday morning, becoming
north/northeast, providing a period of upslope flow for the
mountains and foothills. The timing of this wind shift and
moisture availability will play a role in the extent of snowfall
in these areas as well, but confidence is still shaky. A pocket
of less snowfall is in place in Carbon County, where 2-5 inches of
snow are expected. There is bigger concern with gustier winds in
this area though, with gusts pushing into the 40 mph range Sunday
morning. The combination of falling snow and gusty winds is worth
watching especially for those traveling through this area Sunday.

Beyond the snowfall, well below normal temperatures are in the
forecast through Monday. Overnight temperatures Saturday into
Sunday will drop into the teens and 20s with single digit
wind chills as well. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will
be in the 20s to low 30s, which would be 20-30F below normal.
Sunday night lows in the 10s to single digits, along with wind
chills in the 1s to near zero. Monday night will also be quite
cold with temperatures near zero to low 10s and single digit wind
chills. The negative wind chills will be felt Monday night in the
far east, due to the higher snow accumulations and near zero
temperatures.
A gradual warmup will begin Monday, with northwest
flow and a building ridge replacing the north/east flow pattern.
Heights will increase allowing for temperatures to climb into the
30s Tuesday and 40s to low 50s into Friday. Models are indicating
another period of unsettled weather mid-late week with another
trough pushing across the Pacific Northwest. Periods of
precipitation and light snow accumulations are depicted by the NBM
for the mountains Tuesday-Thursday, before higher amounts appear
towards the end of the week. It should be noted that confidence on
the evolution and extent is still low though.

Matos

&&

.AVIATION...


Flight conditions will continue to be poor over the next 24 hours
as usplope flow will continue to bring low stratus, localized
foc, and scattered, light snow to all terminals. Mountains will be
obscured during this period as well. Vertz
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/041 023/026 015/027 012/037 021/050 029/053 032/050
    24/S    +9/S    62/S    11/B    11/B    14/O    55/O
LVM 027/050 023/029 015/034 018/043 026/049 032/052 030/049
    26/O    98/S    31/B    13/S    21/B    36/O    54/O
HDN 023/048 021/028 012/030 009/037 017/051 026/056 028/051
    23/O    ++/S    73/S    11/B    11/B    13/R    55/O
MLS 024/039 020/023 012/022 001/024 007/036 018/042 023/040
    44/S    9+/S    72/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/S
4BQ 024/048 022/028 011/024 004/031 011/046 022/051 027/045
    21/B    7+/S    72/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    43/O
BHK 016/033 016/023 006/021 904/022 000/035 015/041 020/039
    46/S    8+/S    82/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    33/S
SHR 024/053 022/031 010/029 010/039 019/050 026/057 028/051
    22/R    8+/S    61/E    01/B    11/B    13/R    54/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Saturday evening through
      Sunday evening FOR ZONES
      29-30-34-36-42-57-58-138-169-173-235.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM Saturday to midnight
      MDT Sunday night FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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