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000
FXUS62 KCHS 241405
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1005 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will drop into the region tonight into Thursday.
High pressure builds back into the region late week through the
early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid morning update: No significant changes were made to the
going forecast. Of note, morning visible satellite imagery
reveals a plume of smoke that originated from fires in the
Florida Panhandle, across southern Georgia and nosing up
through southeast Georgia with some additional smoke noted
through central Georgia into South Carolina. HRRR vertically
integrated smoke guidance suggests it may hang around across the
region through the day in some capacity. Not a big impact on the
forecast...but tonight`s sunset may be interesting.

Previous discussion...
Today: Elongated high pressure centered off the Southeast U.S.
coast will propagate farther out into the Atlantic today as a
broad trough upper trough swings across New England. A weak cold
front will work south through the day and merge with a
pronounced lee-side surface trough that extends from the South
Carolina Upstate into the Virginia Piedmont. Locally, a
combination near full insolation (outside of some passing thin
cirrus) and rising low-level 1000-850 hPa thickness will support
a seasonably warm day with highs warming into the upper
70s/lower 80s away from the beaches. Cooler conditions will be
found closer to the coast where the surface pattern will support
the development of a modest resultant sea breeze circulation by
early afternoon. This feature will move slowly inland through
early this evening with its inland penetration likely hampered
somewhat by the westerly flow aloft.

Tonight: The cold front will weaken into a broad surface trough
tonight with no discernible airmass change as it sinks into the
area tonight. Forecast soundings show much of the lower
Troposphere will remain bone dry with the exception of a band
moisture (>80% RH) rooted in the 850-700 layer. This moisture
coupled with some weak lift in the vicinity of the surface
trough could support a broken band of light showers or sprinkles
over mainly the eastern Midlands into the Pee Dee. Some of this
activity could brush portions of southern South Carolina early
Thursday morning, mainly in the 11pm-4am time frame. Any such
activity looks to quite light with the best chances of a few
hundredths of rain mainly occurring along/north of the I-26
corridor. 20-30% were highlighted in this area. Lows Thursday
morning will range from the mid-upper 50s inland to the lower-
mid 60s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak front/trough will linger in the vicinity into Thursday
before high pressure reasserts itself late week into the
weekend. Aloft, broad troughing will gradually give way to
rising heights and building ridge over the region. No notable
weather concerns. Models still generate a few light showers at
times with onshore flow, however forcing is pretty limited.
Slight chance PoPs (20%) were introduced Friday afternoon across
southeast Georgia where there has been some persistence, but
otherwise the chance for measurable rainfall was low enough to
preclude mention in the forecast.

High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal,
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows both nights range
from the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s at the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains the dominant feature at the surface and
aloft Sunday into Monday. This pattern favors warm temperatures
and low rain chances. Upper ridge axis should shift offshore on
Tuesday as a trough moves into the eastern U.S. and brings a
cold front towards the local area. It should be another dry day
across much of the area, however a few showers could impact
inland areas during the latter half of the day. Temperatures
will continue a warming trend through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
24/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Morning satellite imagery shows a plume of smoke
that originated from fires in the Florida Panhandle cycling up
through southeast Georgia and across the KSAV terminal. Smoke
should thin out this morning but we`ve added a brief period of
MVFR conditions to the KSAV forecast. Otherwise, VFR through
25/12z. Isolated showers associated with a weak southward moving
surface trough will likely lurk about both KCHS and KJZI early
Thursday morning. VCSH was used to highlight this. No impacts
are expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: South to southwest winds will dominate the marine area
today as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Winds will
generally average 10-15 kt this morning, but will increase a bit
this afternoon as a modest resultant sea breeze circulation
develops along the coast. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt in the
South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg out 20 NM and as high
as 15 kt in the Edisto Beach-Savannah nearshore leg out 20 NM.
In Charleston Harbor, a solid 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt can be
expected. Over the Georgia waters, sea breeze influences will be
less with speeds holding 10-15 kt. Seas will average 2-4 ft,
highest in the Georgia offshore leg 20-60 NM offshore and in the
South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg.

Tonight: Southwest winds will diminish to near 10 kt overnight
as a surface drops south into the local marine areas. A few
showers could impact mainly the South Santee-Edisto Beach
nearshore leg and Charleston Harbor early Thursday morning. Seas
will average 2-3 ft nearshore waters out to 20 NM and the 3-4 ft
over the Georgia offshore leg out 20-60 NM.

Thursday through Monday: Winds turn onshore Thursday and then
persist through late week as high pressure builds from the north.
Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range on Friday but
should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds veer more
southerly early next week with no additional marine concerns.

Rip Currents: Lingering swell, onshore winds and lunar
influences will continue to support a moderate risk for rip
currents for all beaches today.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$