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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130229
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1029 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Quebec will move northeast away from the
region as a high pressure ridge builds over the Ohio Valley by
late Saturday. Weak low pressure will move southeast across the
Great Lakes to New York by Sunday evening. A trailing cold front
will move south through the area Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Was able to cancel a portion of the Wind Advisory and will
continue to trim from west to east as both the pressure gradient
and mixing starts to relax. The core of stronger winds at 925mb
will continue to shift east with time and several eastern
locations saw peak gusts in the last hour. We should be able to
replace the High Wind Warning with a Wind Advisory for the
overnight before midnight. Rain should largely taper off from
west to east as well through about 4 AM. Several eastern
locations have picked up around an inch in the last 24 hours
and some rivers and creeks continue to rise as water channels
into waterways. Please report any flooding issues that may be
ongoing and unwarned. The saturated ground likely contributed to
trees coming down with the high winds this evening.

Previous discussion...Gradually improving conditions are expect
overnight as deep low pressure over Quebec gradually moves
farther away. Clouds and precipitation will slowly diminish
along with the gusty west- northwest winds. Winds may briefly
increase through 8PM with gusts to 40-50 mph and then decrease
later in the evening. The western edge of the precipitation
shield over central lower MI and western Ohio will slowly shift
east tonight. The atmosphere may cool enough to change the rain
showers to snow showers toward midnight in the higher terrain of
inland northwest PA. Snow accumulation will be less than an
inch. Overnight lows will drop to 35-40.

The pressure gradient will relax on Saturday as clearing
progresses across the region. A brief early morning shower is
possible over Northwest PA. High temperatures will warm and
range from the lower 60s along I-75 to the upper 40s in
northwest PA.

Clouds and moisture will increase Saturday night as the high
pressure ridge shifts to the east and an impulse in the
northwest flow sweeps across the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift
may be sufficient to trigger a few showers and perhaps thunder
over and near the lake and west of I-71. Overnight lows will
mainly be in the 40s except in the higher terrain of nw PA which
drop into the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave impulse will track across the Upper Great
Lakes into southern Ontario on Sunday. A warm front will advance
northward across the area Sunday morning with a few scattered
showers possible. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
60s across NW PA to the mid 70s across NW OH by Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will slide from north to south across
the area late Sunday afternoon and evening. We will have to
watch for a marginal potential (see SPC Day 3 outlook) for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms possible. The thermodynamics are
on the lower end of the scale but could be enough to spark off
some organized convection. MLCAPE will be between 500 to 1000
J/kg along with 30 to 35 knots of Bulk 0-6 km shear. MLCIN will
be a limiting factor initially but by the evening cooling aloft
should allow some convection to develop. High pressure will
build in on Monday with cooler temperatures. High temps will be
coolest near the lakeshore and NW PA in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Further inland and across NW OH, high temps will climb
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern will be warm and somewhat active for the middle
and end of next week. A transient upper level ridge will move from
west to east across the region on Tuesday. A warm front will lift
northeastward across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb into the
70s areawide. A vigorous upper level trough and strong low pressure
system will track through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
and eventually moving through the Great Lakes region during the
middle of next week. A cold front will push eastward across the Ohio
valley late on Wednesday. The cold front may stall across Lake Erie
Thursday and will keep rain chances in the forecast through the end
of the long term period.  Temperatures will remain above normal for
much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Rain continues across NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania with low
pressure over southern Quebec. Rain will tend to decrease from
west to east through 09Z. We have seen an increase in westerly
winds off Lake Erie with a peak gust to 50 knots at CLE at 23Z.
Winds will remain strong with gusts of 40-50 knots through 02Z
then start to decrease for the remainder of the night. Most
other terminals will see peak gusts of 30-40 knots, generally
peaking by 03Z except perhaps closer to 06Z at ERI. Ceilings
range from VFR in NW Ohio to MVFR in NE Ohio/NW Pennsylvania.
Gradual improvement and eventual clearing is expected from west
to east into Saturday. Breezy west northwest winds with gusts
of 25-30 knots possible through late Saturday afternoon then 10
knots or less after 23Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with showers and thunderstorms Sunday
morning through predawn hours of Monday morning and again overnight
Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough conditions on Lake Erie will continue through Saturday. Small
Craft Advisories will stay in effect into Saturday with a slowly
drop off of the headlines during the day. Westerly winds 25 to 33
knots will continue through tonight for much of the lake. The
eastern basin will have the highest winds up to 35 knots of Gales
closer to Buffalo. Winds will slowly decrease late Saturday into
Saturday night from the west to southwest 10 to 15 knots. By Sunday,
winds will become southerly to southwesterly and increase again 15
to 20 knots. A cold front will move across the lake Sunday evening
with northerly winds 8 to 12 knots. Weak high pressure will build
over the lake Monday with light and variable winds. By Tuesday,
easterly to southeasterly winds will return and increase 10 to 20
knots. We may get close to SCA headlines again by Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system will track through the
Great Lakes by Wednesday. Southerly winds will increase up to 20 to
30 knots by middle of next week with SCA headlines likely. Low water
advisory will remain in effect for the western basin of Lake Erie
into this evening. The water levels briefly touched near the
critical low water mark earlier this afternoon and have since
rebounded possibly due to sloshing on the lake. We will maintain the
low water advisory in case the water levels slosh back downward this
evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ007>009-
     019>023-029>033-038.
     High Wind Warning until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>013-
     089.
     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ014.
PA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>146-162>166.
     Low Water Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ145-
     146.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ147>149-167>169.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...KEC/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Griffin