400
FXUS61 KCLE 291759
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
159 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge extends into the region today, stretching
northwest from the Carolina coast. A cold front will move across
the area tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will return to the
area on Wednesday. A low pressure system will move through the
Midwest on Thursday and extend a warm front into the region with
a cold front moving through on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
Showers have begun to develop upstream in Indiana ahead of an
approaching cold front. As these showers move east, they will
enter an area with a bit more instability and wind shear in NW
OH which may allow for some of these showers to develop into
thunderstorms and produce isolated gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Overall severe threat is minimal, but will need to
keep an eye on any storms that develop this afternoon. No other
major adjustments were needed with this update.

930 AM Update...
Temperatures are already trending warmer than previously
forecast this morning, so adjusted temperatures to reflect that
and then increased the overall high temperatures a degree or
two. No other changes were needed with this update.

630 AM Update...
Rain of rain is consolidating in a SSW-NNE motion across eastern
Illinois and western Indiana this morning. Some weakening in
this rain is expected over the next several hours but areas of
showers and some thunder will begin entering the forecast area
just afternoon. Have tightened up the PoPs before 2 PM to
reflect a narrowed band of precipitation entering the region.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure extending northwest from the Carolinas and a
supporting upper ridge has allowed for a bubble of dry, warm
air across the region. These features will allow for dry
conditions for the first part of the day, along with another
well above normal day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
High temperature records across the region are a bit lower and
some record highs may be possible this afternoon.

A negatively tilted upper trough over the Upper Midwest will
move east and begin pushing this ridge away from the region
today. A vorticity maximum within the flow will be coincident
with a surface cold front that will move through the Great Lakes
region. Convection should develop ahead of these features with
initial rain and possible storms reaching Northwest Ohio later
this afternoon into the evening. Overall coverage of showers and
storms will be scattered as the main forcing will be fighting
against the upper ridge that has sustained drier weather over
the last 24 hours. However, another push of energy into the
region from the southwest tonight should allow for coverage to
increase and have categorical PoPs traversing across the
forecast area. There is enough instability for thunderstorms;
however, the better jet energy is well north or south of the
local forecast area and do not expect organization of storms
into a strong or severe threat. The surface front will move
across the forecast area on Tuesday morning and rain chances
will diminish with this feature. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
tapered with the front with 70s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will have pushed through the area with some
lingering rain showers remaining over far northeastern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania early Tuesday evening. An area of high
pressure at the surface will build over the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Height levels will rise as an upper level
ridge moves over the region Wednesday into Thursday. We will see a
very nice first couple of days of May on Wednesday and Thursday with
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds from south or
southwest, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
areawide. With light low level flow by Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon, there may be a weak lake breeze that comes inland off the
lakeshore later in the day to cool temperatures a bit. The overall
weather message for the middle of the week is above average
temperatures and very nice weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather will turn a little more unsettled by the end of the
week. An upper level trough will swing through the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will
push through the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region Friday.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms likely become
likely Friday afternoon into the late evening. We will see one more
very warm day ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon with
temperatures back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another area of high
pressure will build back into the region Saturday through the first
part of Sunday with fair weather conditions. High temperatures this
weekend will be slightly cooler but still above average in the lower
to middle 70s. A larger upper level trough will develop and dig
across the Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley late Sunday into
Monday to bring another round of unsettled weather with scattered
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next
couple hours. Satellite imagery showers scattered to broken
diurnal CU developing across the entire area which will
gradually transition into overcast skies late this afternoon
into the evening as a cold front approaches from the east. This
cold front will result in widespread rain showers beginning near
21Z for western terminals and overnight for eastern terminals.
As these showers become more widespread, visibilities will drop
to MVFR distances with ceilings gradually diminishing to MVFR
overnight and IFR early Tuesday morning along the cold front.
Showers will begin to taper from west to east beginning Tuesday
morning with lingering showers possible into the afternoon
across the east.

In addition to the widespread showers, there is a chance for
thunderstorms especially along and west of I71 where instability
and wind shear is the greatest. Overall impact should be minimal
for most terminals with the exception of KTOL which may see an
isolated stronger thunderstorm with gusty winds up to 35 knots
and heavy rainfall. With uncertainty in the timing, opted to
not include the gust and handled the thunderstorm potential in a
tempo.

Finally looking at the wind forecast winds will remain sustained
from the southwest at 12-16 knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots
along and west of I77. There has also been a weak lake breeze
that has developed over the eastern shore of Lake Erie, shifting
winds at KERI to have a northerly component and remain weak at
5-10 knots. Near sunset, winds will weaken areawide to 5-10
knots, remaining from the southwest ahead of the front then
shifting to be west-northwesterly behind the boundary.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will again increase once again today 10-15 knots
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will track across
Lake Erie late tonight into Tuesday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Before the front arrive, there could be a chance for
a weak lake breeze to develop along the central and eastern
lakeshore this afternoon. After the frontal passage, westerly winds
at 5-10 knots will follow through Tuesday night. High pressure
builds back over the lake on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north
across the lake on Thursday. Southwesterly flow of 5-10 knots is
expected Wednesday through Thursday. Southerly to southwesterly
winds will increase on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front
will move eastward across the lake late Friday night. High pressure
will build back over Lake Erie on Saturday with light westerly
winds. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees
of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are
the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
04-29   87(1899)       81(1942)       84(1899)       84(1888)       85(1942)       82(1899)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...