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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230343
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1043 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Some lingering showers remain across the Coastal Bend and marine
zones this afternoon. A low chance for showers (10-30%) will stick
around until early this evening. Though model guidance shows PWAT
values between 1.25-1.50 inches (within the 50th and 90th percentile
for this time of year) remaining in the forecast, conditions should
clear by the overnight hours as the likelihood of the existence a
lifting mechanism to induce precipitation activity subsides.

Increasing low level moisture will continue in the short term as an
eastward moving high pressure center allows for south-southeasterly
onshore flow to return. This low level flow will usher in some mid
level clouds tonight, that will slowly mix out on Tuesday. The
clouds will keep low temperatures below normal tonight, with inland
areas of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads reaching the mid
50s and elsewhere reaching the low-to-mid 60s. Highs will also be
slightly below normal Tuesday before a greater warming trend sets in
during the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday as feels-
like temperatures flirt around 100

▶ Breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph Thursday through Saturday

A mid-level ridge over Mexico will induce ridging aloft over
South Texas on Wednesday with a very weak shortwave embedded over
the northeastern periphery. Keeping a very low (<10%) chance of
convection on Wednesday due to the weak disturbance and above
normal moisture. Ridging amplifies on Thursday and the surface
pressure gradient tightens as cyclogenesis develops Lee side of
the Rockies and causes breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph
with gusts near 35 mph.

Thursday night through this weekend, a series of mid-level troughs
will dig into the Desert SW CONUS and traverse across the Great
Plains, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft and a severe threat
well north of our area. Although we will have weak shortwave
disturbances associated with this trough over South Texas and
moisture above normal with PWATs around 1.5", we`ll lack a
sufficient surface lifting mechanism and have a large cap to
overcome from 850-700mb. Therefore, only have a low chance (10-20%)
of showers and thunderstorms brushing the northern tier counties
from La Salle to Victoria Friday through Sunday where the cap would
be most favorable to break. In addition, breezy conditions will be
in place with southeasterly winds 20-25 mph over the Coastal Plains.

Temperatures will warm through the rest of the week with a low to
medium chance (20-50%) of apparent temperatures exceeding 95 over
the Brush Country on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 80s to
mid 90s and lows will persist from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals except LRD. Expect MVFR
cloud cover to spread east overnight with MVFR ceilings reaching
COT by 08Z. Periods of MVFR ceilings are expected at ALI, CRP, and
VCT by 10Z before becoming prevailing MVFR around 15Z. VFR
ceilings will return over South Texas late in the afternoon before
MVFR conditions return to the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weak to moderate east-northeasterly winds will eventually transition
to the southeast tonight. Low chances (10-30%) for rain will
continue this evening across the marine zones with drier
conditions overnight tonight and Tuesday. Generally weak to
moderate onshore flow Wednesday will strengthen to moderate to
strong Thursday and persist through into early next week as the
pressure gradient tightens. There is a medium to high chance (50-90%)
of Small Craft Advisories needed during the latter half of this
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical
thresholds while winds remain below critical thresholds for much of
the week. Southeasterly winds 15-20 mph Wednesday will increase
to 15-25 mph Thursday and persist through the weekend. The
strongest winds will likely be focused over the Coastal Plains
where relative humidity remains above 40%. Winds over 20 mph at 20
ft are not expected to coexist with relative humidity below 30%.
Therefore, there are no elevated fire weather concerns this week
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  81  71  85 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          57  81  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
Laredo            63  83  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             59  81  68  87 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          66  81  72  83 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           62  82  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        60  81  69  85 /   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       68  79  73  83 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...LS/77