097
FXUS64 KCRP 101805
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
105 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 Cold front to move across the region today
 Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday

A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this
morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast
this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our
southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of
the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier
conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today
climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT`s from the latest sounding
are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP`s in
the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s
accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a
low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances
for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region.
Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday

 Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat
related impacts daily.

The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the
region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ
ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the
Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while
sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject
out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive
convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to
moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday
and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria
Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We
begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the
west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears
the region.

By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well
underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along
the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce
back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate
heat risk for much of South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The slow moving cold front that has been fizzling, still has
enough energy to help produce clouds over most of south Texas.
While the drier air is expected to filter into the region, the
moisture will continue for another night, except VCT which looks
like it has gotten into the drier air, and should remain VFR
through the next 24 hours. All of the other TAF sites will remain
VFR to MVFR and back, with ALI and CRP running a risk (15-25%) of
IFR CIGs as the moisture remains. Otherwise there is a 30% chance
of showers and thunderstorms at ALI and CRP with the proximity of
the moisture and the weakening boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in
response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist
through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is
a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume
Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a
20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.
Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances
return by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  85  75  89 /  30  10  20  30
Victoria          70  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50
Laredo            75  90  76  96 /  20  20  30  10
Alice             73  86  74  92 /  30  20  20  30
Rockport          75  85  76  85 /  10  10  10  30
Cotulla           75  87  75  93 /  20  20  30  20
Kingsville        74  85  75  90 /  30  20  20  30
Navy Corpus       78  85  77  87 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...JSL/86