600
FXUS61 KCTP 011917
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
317 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain
 and thunderstorms Sat/Sun

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Patches of clouds at different (generally higher) altitudes will
drift across the CWA overnight. 5H heights rise and so do the 8H
temps overnight. Expect decent but not great radiational cooling
as winds go light, and even calm in deeper valleys. Did hint at
some patchy valley fog late tonight, but that may be a stretch
given the drying we had today/Wed. Current dewpoints in the L40s
to L50s do rise a little by morning mainly due to
stratification/loss of mixing. So, T-Td may touch briefly in
the cooler north-central valleys before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
5H ridge crests overhead Thurs. Plenty of sunshine through only
patchy clouds will allow good heating. The 8H/llvl temps fall a
little across the N as a weak/dry cool front inches across the
CWA. We should add 5F onto maxes in the S compared to Wed, but
the NW/Alleghenies may fall 3-5F short of Wed. While at least
one HREF member makes a spotty aftn shower or two across the S,
we think the dryness of the airmass and healthy CINH will keep
anything from reaching the ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night will remain dry and mild. Easterly flow begins
to take hold on Friday, as high pressure noses down the eastside
of the Appalachians. This should result in cooler temperatures
Friday, especially across eastern PA. This setup could also
favor low clouds into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley
Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the
Midwest into the Commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied
by showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring
drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching
warm front looks to bring increasing likelihood for a return of
clouds and showers/storms for Tuesday and now Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is firmly in control for the overnight, and only
spotty patches of clouds at various levels will cross the
airpace over Central PA. Wind goes mainly light/variable. This
could allow a very small amount of valley fog to form in the
central valleys, and we have mentioned this (30%) possibility in
the TAF for KIPT. The drying we had today/Wed will likely
preclude fog at all other sites. The upper ridge will be
overhead, keeping clouds to a minimum Thursday and into Friday.
A weak/dry backdoor cold front and any clouds it forces will
make no changes to our VFR flying conditions into Friday.

Outlook...

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east
w/MVFR reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Reductions to IFR
likely in RA/FG.

Mon...AM fog MVFR clouds poss W. PM SHRA poss.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations
on Monday:

SITE        2024 OBS     PRVS RECORD
Altoona          86F     83F (1956)
Bradford         82F     76F (1984)
Williamsport     89F     86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year,
almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May
11th).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert