Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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400 FXUS61 KCTP 020232 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1032 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. However, the parent shortwave and best forcing will pass well north of the state and moisture return ahead of the front is meager. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Large dewpoint depressions going into the evening, combined with a light southwest breeze, will likely preclude fog formation. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The dying cold front is progged to settle to just south of the Mason Dixon Line by Thursday afternoon, as the associated shortwave passes off the New Eng coast and upper level ridging builds over PA. Low-pwat air flowing into the state should result in mainly sunny skies and modeled 850mb temps of 12-14C translate to expected highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N Mtn, to the mid 80s in the southern valleys, some 10-15 degrees above average for early May. Low level convergence and higher humidity is noted in the vicinity of the front over the southern tier Thursday afternoon. However, a weak capping inversion and very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very unlikely. Very dry air above a weak inversion in the forecast soundings support undercutting NBM dewpoints Thursday afternoon over the central and northern part of the forecast area. We`ve used a blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the MixedDewpoint Tool. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the Midwest across the Commonwealth this weekend, accompanied by showers and storms. The best chc of wet weather will be across western PA Fri night, before expanding eastward Saturday into Sunday. Looking to the first half of next week, the front should pull east of the region on Monday, taking the widespread shower/storm activity with it. Tuesday into Wednesday, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley should bring an increasing chc of showers/storms. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... There could be a few high and mid-level clouds passing overhead overnight, as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north and pushes a weak/dry cold front into the area. A light SWerly breeze (5-10 kts) will persist across the western highlands overnight, while winds should largely become light/variable southeast of the Allegheny Front. There could be a bit of valley fog in the central valleys, and have maintained a hint of this in the IPT TAF. An upper ridge will build overhead on Thursday, producing a sunny day with widespread VFR conds. Sfc winds will become NWerly, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn. Outlook... Thu night-Fri AM...Predominantly VFR. Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/ brief reductions possible. Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Reductions likely. Mon...AM fog/clouds poss W. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures were set at the following locations on Monday: SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956) Bradford 82F 76F (1984) Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974) It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year, almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May 11th). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego AVIATION...Evanego CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert