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000
FXUS63 KDDC 240800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible
  Thursday afternoon and evening, although multiple modes of
  failure exist.

- Fire weather conditions appear likely Friday and Saturday for
  much of the area, while another round of severe thunderstorms
  are possible Saturday along and east of US-183.

- Dry, warming trend is likely Sunday through the end of the
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Latest RAP upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery
indicate west-northwest flow is in place above the central
plains at 08Z Wednesday between weak longwave ridging over the
Rocky Mountains and weak longwave troughing over the eastern
CONUS. Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance suggest the upper
level ridge will slide east over the High Plains as the next
shortwave trough moves onto the far southwestern CONUS. In
response, surface lee cyclogenesis will begin from eastern CO
all the way north into Canada, supporting increasing
southeasterly winds across southwest KS. Moist advection on the
back of these winds may support scattered sprinkles during the
afternoon, but QPF will be minimal as HREF probability of
exceeding 0.01" is 50% or lower. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
cloudy much of the day, limiting solar insolation and therefore
afternoon highs to the mid 60s to low 70s. Wednesday night,
elevated southeasterly winds and cloudy skies will suppress
radiational cooling, with lows only dropping into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

Focus then shifts to the possibility for thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, Thursday afternoon and evening. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance all agree the upper level shortwave
trough will be just southwest of Phoenix, AZ, at 12Z, and eject
rapidly northeast through the morning and early afternoon,
reaching the central Rockies by 00Z Friday. A surface lee
cyclone in eastern CO will deepen ahead of this wave to ~990-mb,
with its attendant warm front lifting north through southwest
KS while the dryline mixes east to near US-83. Increasing
southeasterly winds south of the warm front and ahead of the
dryline will continue to draw moist air poleward, with at least
low 60s dewpoints becoming established by mid-afternoon
supportive of at least moderate instability amidst 45-55 kts of
deep-layer shear. As the upper level shortwave approaches,
increasing forcing for ascent may trigger convective initiation
along the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Primary
storm mode will be supercells capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. A tornado threat will exist with these supercells
as well, especially with any discrete supercell that can persist
into the evening when an intensifying low-level jet enlarges
low-level hodographs. Any thunderstorm activity that
materializes across southwest KS will move east/northeast
through the late afternoon and evening hours, exiting our CWA by
midnight Friday morning.

All of the above said, there are a couple modes of failure with
this setup that could result in southwest KS seeing little to no
convection at all. First, elevated showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of
central and eastern KS driven by strong warm advection over the
retreating cool air north of the warm front. Plenty of
uncertainty surrounding the degree and location of this activity
exists between guidance members, but many show a substantial
signal for precipitation casting considerable doubt on the
extent of destabilization owing to thunderstorm outflow. Second,
warm mid-level temperatures (+8-9C at 700-mb) will represent a
noteworthy cap that will be difficult to breach, especially
given the synoptic forcing may not arrive until after the
boundary layer begins to stabilize. This concern is further
exacerbated by the potential for morning convection. While the
CAPE/shear parameter space within the moist sector Thursday
afternoon and evening will be more than sufficient for
organized/severe convection, and any surface-based thunderstorm
will be capable of all severe hazards, it is quite possible
these negative factors largely or entirely inhibit severe
thunderstorms across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Medium range ensembles continue to agree the upper level
shortwave trough will move into the northern plains and wrap up
into a cut-off low during the day Friday. The associated
surface trough will be located over central NE, putting
southwest KS firmly within the cyclone`s dry slot. Strong
downsloping winds, dry air, and afternoon temperatures in the
low to mid 80s will foster fire weather conditions favoring the
southwest zones.

On Saturday, the subtropical jet wave train reloads as another
upper level trough reaches the Desert Southwest by 12Z, followed
by another rapid northeast ejection. Thunderstorms, some
potentially severe, will again be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening along and east of a dryline that is currently
expected to be placed near US-183. Behind the dryline, another
day of fire weather conditions looks probable as strong
southwesterly winds overlap with afternoon temperatures warming
into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Once this weekend wave passes overhead, medium range ensembles
indicate a dry, warming pattern will take hold Sunday through
the end of the long term period. Afternoon temperatures on
Sunday will be near normal as northerly winds on the back side
of the surface low draw cooler temperatures equatorward, but
will be quickly replaced by highs soaring into the upper
80s/near 90 by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals at the
beginning of this TAF cycle, with light and variable winds.
Shortly after sunrise, winds will increase out of the southeast
into the 13-18 kt range, and continue through the end of the
period. Near the end of the period, persistent moist advection
and diurnal cooling will result in cigs dropping into at least
MVFR, with further reductions likely beyond 06Z Thursday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer