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000
FXUS63 KDDC 181916
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong north winds developing behind a cold front are expected
  to produce gusts upward of 50-55 mph through mid-morning.

- Rain chances (40-60%) return to portions of western Kansas
  Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing
southward through northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

Despite a gradually intensifying westerly flow aloft across the
Western High Plains today into tonight, drier conditions are
forecast as surface high pressure dropping southward through the
Northern High Plains into the high plains of eastern Colorado helps
usher a much drier air mass into western Kansas. Gusty north
winds upward of 50-55 mph developing behind a strong cold front
moving through western Kansas early this morning are expected to
diminish gradually late morning/early afternoon as a tight pressure
gradient across western Kansas begins to relax. Well below normal
temperatures are expected today as colder air surges southward
through western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage this
morning, lowering H85 temperatures below 5C across much of
southwest/central Kansas. With the HREF indicating only a 30 to
50% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F for much of the
area, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas, particularly
with increased cloud cover lingering through at least mid-day.
For tonight, the HREF shows a 30-60% probability of temperatures
falling below 40F, so expect lows generally in the mid/upper
30s(F) to near 40F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rain chances (40-60%) return to portions of western Kansas early in
the weekend as medium range ensembles indicate a weak upper level
shortwave trough transitioning east through the Four Corners Region,
setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
high plains of western Kansas. Despite a surface high spreading
southward into the Western High Plains, blocking a deeper pool of
moisture off to our south, enough mid-level moisture associated with
the arriving upper level system in conjunction with weak H7
frontogentic forcing present may lead to light rain development
Friday night into early Saturday. This is supported by the NBM 4.1
painting a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding a mere 0.1
of an inch by early Saturday afternoon. Drier conditions are
forecast Sunday into very early next week as the aforementioned
surface high migrates eastward through the Central Plains.

Temperatures are forecast to remain a little below seasonal levels
Friday as a cooler air mass is slow to erode from the Western High
Plains. The NBM 4.1 indicates a 70-90% probability of temperatures
exceeding 55F Friday, so expect afternoon highs generally in the
upper 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F). A secondary surge of colder air
will drop temperatures well below normal through the weekend with
potentially near freezing temperatures Saturday night as the NBM 4.1
shows a 80-100% probability of temperatures dropping below 40F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Gusty north winds will gradually lose momentum this afternoon
as the surface pressure gradient weakens and the surface
pressure increases. Still, through mid afternoon expect gusts in
excess of 30 knots at DDC and HYS while the gusts might be a
bit weaker at GCK and LBL. A marked drop off in wind speeds will
be most noticeable after about 00 UTC (LAMP guidance drops the
sustained wind speed to an average 10-15 knots with no gusts at
all terminals.

Clouds-wise, the GOES satellite is showing some thinning
already while area METARs have generally reported about
1500-2000 ft ceilings, with the exception of HYS which has
already scattered out. The other sites will also scatter out as
the afternoon wears on.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell