Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 241103
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
603 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active Weather Returns Today With Rain And Snow Expected

- Very Windy Today Through Tuesday

- Low Chance Of Thunderstorms Monday PM

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

06z surface analysis showed a large area of high pressure
centered across the eastern Midwest and Great Lakes regions,
with a warm front stretching across eastern Colorado into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Ahead of this front, ample WAA was
taking place across the Plains into Iowa and Missouri, resulting
in plentiful low-mid level clouds and spotty rain/snow showers
across the area. Ample dry air in place hinted on our evening
balloon launch was hindering more widespread and heavier
coverage, and this should continue through the remainder of the
night.

Attention then turns west as the warm front advance northward into
Iowa/Missouri Sunday morning. A shortwave will subsequently move
along the warm front, bringing increasing moisture and lift to the
area and increasing threats of rain/snow.

The million dollar forecast questions in this package are the snow
chances and how much will fall out of that. Similar to our event
from Friday, latest CAMs show a relatively narrow band of moderate
to heavy snow falling out of this system where forcing increases
most ahead of the warming temps. Currently, that axis stretches from
about Ames IA into the Waterloo metro, with the gradient
teetering very close to our northwest counties. Latest surface
wetbulb analysis does depict a few hours of near freezing temps
in Benton/Buchanan counties, supporting potential for a few
hours of snow before a changeover to rain by the afternoon.
Potential is there for around 2-4 inches of snow, and have gone
ahead and issued a short duration Winter Weather Advisory here.
Once we get into the afternoon time frame, any snow will change
over to all rain as temps climb well above freezing in the low-
levels. Most will be in a lull as forcing exits the area.

Outside of the precip chances, it will get pretty windy with gusts
out of the southeast to around 30-35 MPH during the day into the
overnight. Some CAMs do depict gusts near advisory level gusts
overnight, but this is likely do to over-mixing of the boundary
layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Monday...

Rain chances will remain high (70-90%) and fairly widespread heading
into Monday as a surface low develops in the central Plains and
sends additional moisture and lift into the area. Locations mainly
along and east of the Mississippi River look to be the focus
area for these rain chances as convergence is maximized along a
prefrontal trough. Amounts could get rather high here as PWATs
climb to around 1.00-1.25". Latest QPF shows around an inch is
favored here.

To the west, rainfall amounts will remain generally below three
quarters of an inch as lift will be more sparse. It`ll be dreary
nonetheless with temperatures in the upper 50s to even low 60s. I
suspect that the 60s are a bit on the generous side and may not be
realized if rain sticks around through the day.

Will have to watch for storm chances during the afternoon and
evening as the surface low approaches the area from the west. Given
the slowdown in progression of the low when compared to previous
guidance, chances are much lower when compared to 24 hours ago. The
latest SPC forecast is in agreement, and has shifted any severe
threat well to the west of the CWA boundary.

It will remain breezy Monday with gusts around 40-45 MPH at times,
especially during the morning. As the core of the LLJ shifts
eastward through the day, winds should subside somewhat. Will need
to monitor this period for a potential wind headline, especially if
we can get enough mixing in the boundary layer.

Tuesday...

Surface cold front and upper level low will traverse the area with
rain chances lingering through the day. Highs will be much cooler
with values ranging from the low to mid 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The weather will improve for midweek as high pressure builds
across the Plains and Midwest. Temps will start out cool but
will improve with a return of southerly flow to the area.

Thursday Night on..

Southerly to southeasterly flow will draw in more mild conditions,
and eventually some moisture return. A return to above normal
temperatures is forecast at the end of the week, with 50s and 60s
spreading over the area. Rain chances increase to the 20-40 percent
range Friday through Sunday as models suggest some short waves
embedded within zonal flow aloft in the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
... Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions are primarily expected for the upcoming TAF
period. There remains a threat of snow late this morning and
afternoon at CID, but this is low confidence and continues to be
handled with a PROB30 group. Tonight, expect LLWS at all
terminals as a 40-50 kt LLJ develops overhead. At the surface, winds
out of the southeast will remain gusty around 25-30 kts through
the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT
     this afternoon for IAZ040-051.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck


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