925
ACUS01 KWNS 051631
SWODY1
SPC AC 051629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
south-central Texas eastward into parts of southeast Texas, mainly
this afternoon and early evening.

...South TX to Mid-South/lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing linear sub-severe MCS over AR moving north-northeast will
likely continue into portions of northeast AR/southeast MO and
adjacent parts of KY/TN through mid afternoon.  Some additional
heating may lead to some invigoration of storms along the leading
edge of outflow with a localized strong/severe risk.  Farther
southwest across south-central into southeast TX, an earlier MCV
over western LA and convective overturning from overnight
thunderstorm activity has left a remnant outflow boundary draped
across southeast TX.  South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich
airmass (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios) beneath a residual
plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, are contributing to moderate
to strong buoyancy.

Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level impulse moving east
over northern Mexico and into south-central TX late this morning.
Recent thunderstorm development over south-central TX to the middle
TX coast may be in part due to ascent related to this upper feature.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably continue to
intensify with severe multicells or supercells with large hail,
damaging gusts and at least marginal tornado potential this
afternoon.  In the absence of notable mid/upper support behind the
shortwave trough, convection may diminish rapidly through the
evening, as the boundary layer stabilizes from both nocturnal
cooling and spreading outflow air.

...Upper Ohio Valley vicinity...
As a mid-level trough glances the region to the north over mainly
southeast Canada, a surface front will provide a focus for lift and
thunderstorm development this afternoon.  A plume of richer
low-level moisture, characterized by lower 60s deg F surface
dewpoints, is located ahead of the cold front and west of a
north-south oriented warm front over western PA.  Continued heating
will result in moderate buoyancy and favor the development of
scattered thunderstorms.  Modest low to mid-level flow will limit
overall storm intensity, but some multicellular organization is
possible.  Isolated hail/damaging gusts will be the primary hazards
with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early
evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 05/05/2024

$$