Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 231802
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Key Messages:
- Cold temperatures will bring frost and freeze conditions to
portions of northern Georgia tonight.
- High fire dangers are expected Sunday afternoon due to low
relative humidity values.
Through Saturday Evening:
As today`s trough moves out and a surface high settles in over the
Eastern U.S. our primary short term weather concerns will become
cold temperatures tonight and dry conditions Sunday afternoon.
Fair skies should set us up for good radiational cooling tonight in
northern Georgia. This should allow temperatures to fall into the 28
to 36 degree range north and west of the Atlanta metro (temperatures
in the metro should remain at or above 36 degrees tonight). The
coldest values (upper 20s) are expected in the wind sheltered
valleys of Fannin, Union and Towns Counties. Thus a Freeze Warning
has been issued for all three counties. A Frost Advisory has been
issued for other portions of northern Georgia. Light northerly winds
may prevent frost formation within parts of the Frost Advisory.
However with CAM guidance indicating a relative wind minimum in
northern Georgia between 4 and 8 AM, our confidence in areas of
patchy frost and temperatures in the 33 to 36 degree range was high
enough for us to go ahead and put out the Advisory.
A new airmass will be in place over the region on Sunday, with dry
air at the surface and in the mid levels. When combined with the
sunny skies and good boundary layer mixing, this should set us up
for low relative humidity values Sunday afternoon. We adjusted our
forecast dewpoints down towards the 10th percentile of the NBM to
highlight this potential. A Fire Danger Statement is likely (>90%
chance) for a good portion of the region Sunday afternoon.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Starting out the longterm outlook Monday morning. Mid level ridging
and and the associated surface high over the East Coast will amplify
and progress eastward. A broad and deep trough will be making its
way across the central plains with a surface low over the KaNe
region. This system should be well matured to fully occluded by
Monday afternoon, with a cold front stretching from the Western
Great Lakes down through the ArKLaTex region. Warm moist gulf air
should see an upward trend in temps as well as moisture. PWATs will
likely reach around 1.25" to 1.75", although there is significant
model variability in the strength of moisture advection and timing.
Winds ahead of the system may become fairly blustery Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front. Gradients
from the eastern high and the western low will be enough to likely
see gusts >35mph across North, and portions of Central, GA.
For now will probably stick with a general blend for precip coverage
and amounts. Timing the coldfront will be very important, however
trough progression will be heavily reliant on a shortwave traversing
the trough itself. Current timing has the precipitation beginning
late Tuesday morning. As of the most recent model runs, CAPE looks
mediocre in the south and scant up north. Likely scenario will have
scattered thunderstorms across the southern CWA and showers with an
isolated thunderstorm possible for the northern CWA. As the
coldfront moves across GA, cyclogenesis supported by the shortwave
will help to develop another sfc low along the coldfront. The exact
location remains to be seen, however models are consistent with
development along the far Southern Appalachians.
Secondary precipitation with this redevelopment is likely and the
faster the shortwave the sooner the cyclogenesis and thus the
greater precipitation amounts. Current model precipitation sits
around 1" through Thursday, however GEFs spread indicates this could
vary as much as another 1". Will need to keep a close eye on this
through the coming days.
The rest of the period looks mostly dry with post
frontal gusty winds returning Thursday morning. High pressure will
mean a return to highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 30s to low
40s.
SM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024
The mix of MVFR and VFR conditions (ceilings 2500-5000 ft AGL and
unrestricted visibility) in the region should transition
prevailing VFR conditions by 21Z today. Then between 21Z today and
06Z Sunday any lingering ceilings should clear. Gusty north winds
will continue through 01Z Sunday, with peak gusts in the 25 to 30
kt range. After 01Z Sunday the winds should weaken, then turn
easterly between 08Z and 14Z Sunday.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF is high.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 37 64 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 40 65 43 62 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 30 63 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 34 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 43 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 37 62 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 43 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 35 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 38 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 45 66 43 68 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ001>005-007-
011>016-019>023-030-031-041-042.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ006-008-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Albright