Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 242023
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant winter impacts from heavy snow and gusty winds are
  still expected today through Tuesday, however more confined to
  the far southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota.

- There is still some uncertainty of the northern extent of the
  heavy snow, particularly from the Fargo-metro area towards
  Lake of the Woods region.

- Expect disruptions to daily life, difficult travel
  conditions, some closures to infrastructure, and blowing and
  drifting snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Water vapor loop shows a lead shortwave lifting from
northeastern SD into our region, bringing some heavier snow into
our southern counties this afternoon. Visibilities at Gwinner,
Wahpeton, and Fergus Falls are all down into the 1/2 to 1/4
mile range and there is some decent accumulation at least on
grassy areas. Once the heavier band lifts north and weakens
later this evening, light snow will continue but there is some
signal for some light freezing drizzle also from a few model
solutions. We received a belated report of some freezing drizzle
from earlier this morning in the south before the heavier snow
started, and can`t rule out some drying out of the dendritic
layer. However, if freezing drizzle does occur is is uncertain
if it is any different impact from melted snow refreezing on the
roads as temperatures drop tonight. The biggest impact any FZDZ
may have could be cutting into the heavy snow accumulations,
which dry air has already done. Thus, will not hit too hard in
messaging.

Think there should be a bit of a lull between weak shortwaves
tonight, but another stronger shortwave will come off the
southern branch upper low tomorrow, bringing another round of
quarter to half inch QPF to portions of our far southeastern
counties. However, moisture in the central and northern Red
River Valley continues to be unimpressive, and the 25th to 75th
percentile snow totals for the Grand Forks area have dropped
down to the 1 to 6 inch range, more advisory than warning.
Warning impacts still pretty stout down in the southern Red
River Valley and west central Minnesota, although again higher
end snow totals not quite as massive as they were in previous
runs. Continued to tone down the wording a bit in the
messaging, and downgraded portions of northeastern ND and
northwestern MN to advisory instead of warning. There will still
be some winter impacts Monday and into Monday night as the
system wraps up and winds pick up and gust to 45 mph, but
overall think there is less of a threat for major to extreme
impacts than previously.

Tuesday should see the impacts decreasing as the pressure
gradient relaxes and the snow starts to taper off. A few snow
showers could linger over northwestern MN into Wednesday as the
main northern branch upper low moves into Ontario. Moderating
temps for the end of the week with more zonal flow, although a
shortwave moving through over the weekend could bring a chance
for some precipitation. Predictability is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Light snow spreading into the area has brought visibility down
into the 2SM range at some locations, and some heavier bands
could bring vis down to 1SM or even lower at times, although
hard to say if it will affect the TAF sites. Ceilings are mostly
around in the MVFR to VFR border, and should see a slow decrease
more to MVFR towards the end of the period. Winds will become
more northerly and gust to the 25 to 30 kt range by Monday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-
     027>030.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ038-039-049-
     052-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>015.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ003-029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ016-022-
     023-027-028-030-031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.