Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 1018 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Latest suite of satellite imagery and surface observations show a
clear sky across eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota at the
moment. An area of stratus from Sioux Lookout to Red Lake, Ontario,
west into eastern Manitoba (quickly approaching Victoria Beach,
continues to shift south with time. Linear extrapolation would
place this into Flag Island and Roseau between 18z and 19z,
then spreading farther west and south through the afternoon.
RAP/HRRR BUFKIT soundings show moisture thickness around 1000ft
to 2000ft thick, thus coordinated with Duluth WFO and used a
blend of the RAP/HRRR to update sky grids through 06z Thursday.
These two models seemed to have a good handle on location of the
stratus. Drier air via northeast winds aloft will eventually mix
out the moist column this evening, thus a trend with clearing
conditions from northeast to southwest overnight seems on track.

UPDATE Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Only seeing a bit of high level cloud cover across the FA early
this morning, with steady west to southwest winds. This is keeping
any fog to the west. Temperatures will also start the day quite
mild, a good 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Should see quite a
bit of sun today, but will have 850mb cold advection with winds
turning to the north. Overall, looking at high temperatures a
little warmer than yesterday, especially in the treed areas of
Minnesota. Winds will decrease tonight, with a decent amount of
the area remaining clear. Therefore temperatures will fall quite
a bit again, especially closer to the Canadian border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Long term guidance continues to show a quiet end to the work week as
an upper level ridge dominates over the central CONUS. Temperatures
should remain at or just below seasonal norms with highs in the low
to mid 30s and overnight lows in the teens. Precipitation chances
increase over the weekend and into early next week as the upper
level ridge begins to break down.

Model guidance continues to show a shortwave trough ejecting out
over the central Plains during the Friday/Saturday timeframe. A warm
front associated with the attendant surface low will likely be
draped from the southern Dakotas region southeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. Precipitation north of this feature will likely stay
south of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, though the
far southern Red River Valley and western Minnesota may see some
light precip late Friday into Saturday.

The best chance for precipitation comes later in the weekend and
into early next week as a second shortwave moves into the north
central CONUS. The recent 00z run of the GFS appears to be picking
up on the precip signal that has been present in the GEFS for the
past couple of days. However, other deterministic models and
ensemble guidance continue to show a high spread in solutions with
this early week system, so confidence in location, timing, and
precipitation type remains low at this time. Luckily there is an
overall low QPF signal and light winds, so impacts appear to be


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Expect SKC through 00z Thursday. Latest satellite imagery shows an
area of stratus/mvfr cigs located from southeast Manitoba and into
western/southern Ontario. This stratus will continue to shift
south and eventually west this evening/tonight. The result will be
for mvfr/ifr cigs reaching KDVL from 02z and 10z Thursday, and a
brief period of mvfr cigs at KTVF between 01z and 03z Thursday.
Rest of the terminals will remain vfr, with cigs ranging from
3500ft to 7000ft above ground level through 06z, then sct high
clouds thereafter.




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