743
FXUS64 KFWD 021916
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/Through Friday afternoon/

Mostly cloudy conditions continue over much of our area as the
bulk of this morning`s precipitation already moved towards
southeast Texas. A fairly dry afternoon is expected for most of
us, but a few scattered showers and storms may develop late
afternoon and evening across portions of North Texas. This will be
ahead of an approaching low pressure system/cold front currently
over West Texas. This system is expected to slide eastward this
evening and tonight and may result in another round of scattered
storms mainly west of I-35 and along the Red River. The greatest
chances for severe weather remains west of Highway 281 this
evening and tonight, but if storms are able to grow upscale as
they move east/southeast into Central Texas, the threat may shift
farther east. Confidence remain low of how widespread this
activity will be given the weak flow aloft and the lack of strong
ascent. But at least scattered showers and storms will continue
through Friday morning before most of the activity moves east of
our area. If any lingering boundary remains near our area, there
could be some additional isolated convection during the afternoon
hours but confidence remains low (less than 20%).

Otherwise, cloudy conditions will keep our temperatures below
average on Friday as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night and Beyond/

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline
west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity
will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit
uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area,
but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe
weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening
lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of
thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight.

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas
Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the
frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually
moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front
acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater
rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20
Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall
event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest
a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this
stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient
instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near
the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday
afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will
provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity
into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional
development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some
low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a
low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35
as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely
dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any
lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system
entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could
bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best
synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as
of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow
and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will
allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low
90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the
forecast over the next several days as we further refine the
details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight.
Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday.

Widespread cloud cover continues this afternoon, but most of the
ceilings remain VFR with southerly winds around 8-12 kts. The
main concern this afternoon will be the potential for a few
storms  impacting some of the DFW Metroplex sites. Based on the
latest high-res models, isolated storms may develop near the area
between 22- 02Z. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity, but occasional lighting can be expected. Another round
of showers and storms may develop overnight, but confidence
remain low on how widespread this activity will be. For now, we
kept the VCTS from 06- 11Z with most of the activity moving
east/southeast after that. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR ceilings return
after midnight tonight and persist through at least mid-morning
Friday.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  69  82  68 /  50  20  30  60  60
Waco                67  82  69  80  68 /  50  30  20  40  50
Paris               66  81  66  80  65 /  50  30  20  60  50
Denton              65  82  67  81  66 /  50  20  30  60  70
McKinney            66  82  67  80  68 /  50  30  20  60  60
Dallas              68  83  69  82  68 /  50  30  20  60  60
Terrell             66  81  67  82  67 /  50  30  20  50  50
Corsicana           68  82  69  83  69 /  50  30  20  40  50
Temple              67  81  69  82  68 /  50  30  10  30  40
Mineral Wells       64  82  67  82  66 /  60  20  40  60  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$