Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
067 FXUS64 KFWD 100605 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 105 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ With the cold front fully though North and Central Texas, cooler and drier air will continue to filter in overnight. The front will continue to move through South Texas as the base of the more progressive northern longwave trough to our northeast swings through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. With the cut- off low still stagnant to our west, this will cause ridging to build across the Southern Plains to end out the week. Overall, subsident air will keep things on the quieter end of the ledge, aside from a couple of shortwave impulses providing enough isentropic ascent for isolated rain chances each afternoon. The first impulse will round the apex of the ridge this afternoon. Isolated showers are expected to form to our west across the Edwards Plateau and move eastward over our Central Texas counties. Guidance generally has the activity weakening as it moves across our area, with the more "robust" reflectivity in our far southwestern counties. Additionally, forecast soundings show a deep dry layer under where the rain would fall from (~500-600mb). This would promote evaporation of much of the rain before it gets to the ground. Have persisted in only having a mention of 20% PoPs for our southeast counties, with 10% or less PoPs elsewhere in Central Texas for today as most will likely stay dry. Afternoon highs will peak in the 70s to low 80s, which are near to below normal for this time of year. On Saturday, the aforementioned cut-off low to our west will de- amplify into a more open wave trough and begin to move eastward. While the trough will not impact our short-term sensible weather, a stronger impulse out ahead of the low will move across the region and break down the ridge. We`ll have better rain and storm chances across our western counties over the afternoon hours as stronger ascent will overspread the region. No severe weather is expected with this activity, but there looks to be enough elevated instability for a few lightning strikes. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/ Update: Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail. Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water- logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday- Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for more details. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Friday Night Onward/ North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers across the far west associated with an upper low situated over the southern Rockies. Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat. However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas. Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains. Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play, making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today) significant opportunity severe weather. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Mid-to-low level VFR clouds are spreading across the TAF sites tonight in the wake of our earlier cold front. The clouds will remain mostly VFR, though have kept a possibility for MVFR cigs for the next two hours at ACT due to lower clouds continuing to develop and spread out across southern Central Texas. Northerly winds will prevail through the rest of the period, with winds increasing slightly to around 10-15 kts over this afternoon. There is a chance for light precipitation at ACT late this afternoon, but with dry air below the cloud deck, much of the rain will likely evaporate before it hits the ground. Have declined to include any mention of rain in the TAF at this time, but will keep watch for any greater possibilities. After the TAF period, winds will shift more easterly on Saturday. This will be included in future TAF issuances. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 77 62 75 65 / 5 5 30 50 60 Waco 62 77 63 71 65 / 10 10 30 70 50 Paris 57 80 60 76 61 / 5 0 10 30 60 Denton 59 77 60 74 63 / 10 5 30 50 60 McKinney 58 78 60 74 63 / 5 5 20 40 60 Dallas 63 78 63 75 64 / 5 5 20 50 60 Terrell 59 77 61 74 63 / 5 5 20 40 60 Corsicana 62 78 64 76 65 / 5 5 20 50 50 Temple 62 78 62 72 65 / 10 20 30 70 40 Mineral Wells 59 74 59 73 63 / 10 20 40 70 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$