079
FXUS63 KGID 042111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost in low lying areas of Dawson and Valley Counties
  will be possible early Sunday morning.

- Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather including
  tornadoes are possible. Initially thunderstorms may be more
  isolated across our western zones and then become more
  widespread as they track east across our eastern zones.

- Overall most areas should begin to dry out Tuesday onward with
  just small chances for mainly isolated light rainfall events
  through the remainder of the forecast period. Most areas will
  likely (70-80%) remain dry or see less than 0.10 Tuesday
  through Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight (Some Minor Frost Possible Lexington to Ord)...

The wind will be light and the skies clear with a drier airmass
in place behind last nights storm system. Therefore,
temperatures should drop off rather quickly and most model
guidance indicates lows Sunday morning in the upper 30s to
around 40 across much of our forecast area. However, in our
traditional cold spots from Lexington to Ord, we could slip into
the mid 30s for lows Sunday morning including some localized
patchy frost mainly in rural low areas.


Sunday...

Southeasterly winds will increase through the day bringing
slightly warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints back to the
region. Highs will mainly be in the upper 60s for most areas.


Sunday Night through Monday Night (Severe Weather Threat)...

Our main forecast concern through the week ahead centers around
our severe thunderstorm potential Monday afternoon/evening. We
can not rule out a small chance (20-40%) of some warm air
advection showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, but not looking like too big of a deal at this
point with most models indicating little to nothing for
precipitation through dawn Monday morning.

A dry line will track east across the forecast area on Monday
with westerly winds and dewpoints only in the 20s and 30s
behind the dry line, but southerly winds and dewpoints in the
60s out ahead of it. Models vary on how soon thunderstorms could
form along and ahead of this dry line. Our 40-80 NBM POPS
Monday morning are probably on the high side and may need to be
lowered with future forecast updates. Most thunderstorms should
hold off until Monday afternoon, with increasing chances of
thunderstorms ahead of the dry line the later we get into the
afternoon and evening. The big question will be how quickly will
this front push east across the forecast area. Most models
currently have this dry line pushing through the Tri-Cities
between 3 and 5 PM with the severe weather threat increasing as
we get later into the day, which will favor areas especially
just east and southeast of the Tri-Cities. That being said, we
are still 2 days out and this front could slow down or even
speed up, which would impact our thunderstorm timing and threat
level.

Synoptically this is very favorable early May pattern for a
plains severe weather outbreak, but probably favoring Kansas a
bit more than Nebraska. Many questions remain, for example, how
much sun will we see on Monday to increase our instability?
Hopefully things will become more clear as we get closer, but
right now the pattern is at least favorable for yet another
severe weather episode worthy of keeping an eye on. Storm mode
is another concern with this system now just getting within the
window of some of our mesoscale models, which indicate that
thunderstorms could rather quickly form into a line, perhaps
another QLCS.


Tuesday through Saturday...

As stated in the key points above this should be an overall
drier period with most areas seeing little if any precipitation
through this outer forecast period. We still have some small NBM
POPs in our forecast, but the pattern does overall become drier.
Temperatures will really be rather nice with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clear to mostly clear skies are expected to persist throughout
most of the TAF valid period with VFR conditions. A breezy
northerly wind this afternoon will decrease around sunset and
then become more easterly and eventually southeasterly
overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely