280
FNUS75 KGJT 301831
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Stagecoach...Oak Creek Fire Protection District
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1231 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A storm system will be moving into the burn area about
the time of ignition starting with light showers through the morning.
Expect heavier showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon into
early evening with outflow winds gusting 30-40 mph and the best chances
for wetting rain. A cold front is forecast to move through the area about
9PM with a brief period of gusty northwesterly winds, and snow showers
with and behind the front. Look for little if any snow accumulation (an
inch or less) with this system. Convective activity will diminish behind
the front, but light rain/snow showers may persist overnight and Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
Max temperature.....48-53.
Min humidity........41-46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 mph.
Clearing Index......1040.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Snow showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then chance of snow showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................30 percent.
Min temperature.....22-27.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 mph. becoming northwest at 15 gusting
                   25 mph with the frontal passage and dropping off to
                    northwest at 5-10 mph behind the front. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair decreasing to poor (16000 knot-ft)
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL decreasing to 1300 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Transport winds.....West 15 mph.
Clearing Index......690 decreasing to 160 overnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....41-46.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good increasing to excellent in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 mph.
Clearing Index......1050.

$$
Forecaster...David Byers
Requested by...Kenyon Shephard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412816.0/GJT
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kenyon.shephard@oakcreekfire.org