Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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562 FXUS63 KGLD 080101 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 701 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7PM MDT/8PM CDT for the region due to low relative humidity values and gusty winds. Winds will decrease this afternoon and evening. - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible for portions of the area on Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 701 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 The Red Flag Warning that was in effect has been allowed to expire at 01z. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 A strong pressure gradient remains over the Central High Plains this afternoon, thanks to a closed upper low over the Dakotas, and an upper ridge over the Tri-State area. Winds will remain gusty this afternoon, particularly for areas south of I-70. Winds have under achieved in some areas a bit today. Relative humidity values remain in the teens in several areas, resulting in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the area through 7PM MDT/8PM CDT. A few models are showing the potential for a few sprinkles or light showers across the northeastern parts of the area this evening. With conditions as dry as they are, confidence is low that if anything is able to develop that any precipitation will reach the ground. Would expect virga at best. Heading into Wednesday, the closed low at 500mb drops back into Central Nebraska and the panhandle. Winds are expected to be lighter tomorrow than the last couple of days. Relative humidity values will fall into the teens and 20s across the region. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Starting Thursday, we come into a period of transition with the potential for more of an active weather pattern . Models are showing the potential for split flow developing. The southern split puts an upper trough over the western CONUS. The northern split of the trough sets up over the Dakotas and Nebraska/Kansas. Westerly flow will be in place over the area on Thursday. Northerly to northwesterly flow will be over the area during the day. A weak disturbance will move into the region, giving areas our next best chance at showers and a few thunderstorms. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated. More uncertainty comes into the forecast beginning Friday. For the time being, conditions look dry and a warm up is expected. High temperatures will reach the mid-60s in eastern Colorado to the low 70s in Kansas and Nebraska. A series of disturbances moving through the region over the weekend and into the start of next week bring more potential chances for shower and/or thunderstorms to the area. Models are not in agreement over timing and location of these events, so there remains considerable uncertainty over who will be impacted. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind gusting 25-30kts at taf issuance will fall below 12kts from 02z-13z. After 14z, northwest winds pick up again with gusts up to 30kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west wind gusting 25-30kts at taf issuance will fall below 12kts from 01z-13z. After 14z, northwest winds increase with gusts up to 30kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...Wekesser LONG TERM...Wekesser AVIATION...99