094
FXUS63 KGLD 071156
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
556 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Tuesday morning
  through Tuesday afternoon for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
  Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in Kansas.
  Relative humidity values in the teens and winds gusting above
  25 MPH are expected.

- The next chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon
  for the northern two thirds of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The upper low is expected to sit over Southeast Montana and Western
South Dakota today. A tight pressure gradient sitting over the Tri-
State area will lead to another day of breezy westerly to northwest
winds with gusts up to 50 mph. The winds are expected to increase
shortly after sunrise with the strongest winds lingering from the
late morning through the early evening. Temperatures are also
expected to warm up with highs in the upper 60s to upper 80s. RH
values are forecast to drop into the teens across the entire area
beginning around mid-day through sunset. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT for Cheyenne County, Colorado as well
as Wallace, Logan, Greeley, and Wichita counties. During the evening
there is a low chance (~15% and less) for locales along and
east of US-283 to see some light rain. Little to no accumulation
is expected. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower
30s to mid 40s tomorrow night.

Little change in the pattern is expected tomorrow as the low
continues to stall over the Northern Plains. Dry conditions are
anticipated during the day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
RH values will bring about elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions during the afternoon hours as they fall into
the mid teens to lower 20s. Winds in the area of lower RH values
are expected to gust up to 20 mph while locales north of US-40
gust up to 35 mph. There is another slight chance (~30% and
less) for rain during the evening in the northwest corner of the
area. Little to no accumulation is expected at this time.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

For the long term period, Thursday is forecast to be the coolest of
the period in the wake of an upper trough axis that swung through
the Plains. Highs are forecast to be in the 60`s with a mix of
clouds and sunshine. There is also a chance for showers and storms
(around 20-60%) as moisture advects into the area and the upper
trough axis swings through. Severe weather is not expected with a
lack of synoptic forcing and higher surface pressure across the area.

For Friday and beyond, the pattern gets a little trickier with the
trough axis swinging to the east while a portion of the trough
separates and moves west as a small cutoff low. With it, a mix of
upper ridging and split flow is forecast to occur which will
generally keep temperatures near to above average. Precipitation
chances will likely be on the lower side unless the cutoff low can
generate a system as it pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Gusty southwest to west surface winds will continue
through ~00Z before shifting to the northwest. Both terminals
could see gusts of 30-40 kts beginning ~15Z through 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK