028
FXUS61 KILN 281431
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1031 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly warm flow will keep temperatures well above normal
into the early part of the week. A weak cold front will cross
the region late Monday night into Tuesday with showers and some
thunderstorms occurring well out ahead of the front. After high
pressure offers a dry period at mid week, a chance for
precipitation will return for the end of the week into the
weekend with the approach of the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast looks on track. Some diurnal cumulus will occur along
with a bit of cirrus, generally thin, passing overhead. It will
be breezy, although a little less so than yesterday. Highs will
reach the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge to continue to provide dry weather tonight.
Expect mainly clear sky conditions with diurnal cumulus clouds
dissipating and only some high level clouds spilling in from the
west. Mild temperatures to drop to lows generally in the lower
60s.

Negatively tilted mid level shortwave and associated surface low
to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the western
Great Lakes Monday. An axis of moisture and marginal instability
to advect into ILN/s FA Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. Have showers and a chance of thunderstorms
developing into the west at mid afternoon. Warm temperatures to
continue with highs from 80 west to the mid 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 shortwave begins to propagate through the Midwest region Monday
night. This will provide ample forcing in a relatively warm and
humid air mass to generate showers. Instability remains pretty
marginal, but some thunderstorms will certainly be possible as well
Monday night. Rain will be quick to exit our fa on Tuesday given the
progressive nature of this shortwave trough and associated surface
cold front. Still expecting that majority of our CWA will only
observe about 0.25" - 0.5" of QPF, but some locally higher amounts
possible with thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday behind the weak
frontal passage, but highs still reach the lower to middle 70s. The
pattern remains dry through at least the beginning of Thursday as
subtle H5 ridging builds back in across the Ohio Valley. This will
result in temperatures rebounding into the 80s for most on
Wednesday, climbing a few degrees higher on Thursday as the ridge
height amplifies.

Model uncertainty remains for the end of the work week. There is
expected to be a trough that carves its way through the Central
Plains and eventually swings through our region. But trough
placement, timing, and potential embedded shortwaves will modify
where/when showers/storms move through our fa.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge to build north into the region with precipitation
staying north of the TAF sites into Monday afternoon. In the
warm air mass expect diurnally driven cumulus clouds along with
high level clouds. Southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts from
mid morning through the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR