National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KILX 150806
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will stick around through
  midweek. Daily highs will be 15-20 degrees above normal.

- A strong storm system will bring an active weather period today into
  Wednesday, including gusty winds and scattered severe storms.
  Along with gusty, non-convective winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures turn cooler later this week, potentially posing a
  threat to sensitive vegetation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Above normal warmth continues today and will continue through mid
week. Yesterday, Peoria broke a record high by reaching 86
degrees. The previous record was set in 1883 of 85 degrees.
Today, highs will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures
will drop below normal after a second cold front passes through on
Thursday. Lows next weekend will flirt with freezing, dropping
into the 30s, which could threaten any sensitive vegetation and/or
crops.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather for today as the cold
front remains draped over the region. The primary threats for
today are isolated hail and damaging wind gusts for areas south
of I-72. Timing looks to be in the late afternoon (after 4pm) into
the night hours. The main threat for this round of severe looks
to end around midnight. However, there could still be some
lingering showers and thunderstorms in the CWA.

Round 2 comes Tuesday afternoon as the 1st of 2 cold fronts pass.
The SPC has expanded the enhanced risk (level 3/5) further east
closer to the I-55 corridor with Springfield and Peoria just on the
outside of the enhanced. SPC is indicating a 10% hatched tornado
risk area and a 15% hatched hail risk area for the enhanced region
in central Illinois. There is also a 15% risk for wind for all of
the CWA. The slight risk (level 2/5) encompasses basically the rest
of the CWA.

The current cold front draped over the CWA will lift north Tuesday
morning as a warm front, placing central Illinois in the warm
sector. Dewpoints get up into the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s are expected Tuesday afternoon. The NAM 3km and HRRR are
showing SBCAPE values of 1200-1600 J/kg, and bulk shear (0-6km) of
50-60 knots along/ahead of the front during the 20z Tues-00z Weds
time period. With surface heating, lapse rates look to steepen
during the afternoon hours. The left exit region of the upper level
jet will move overhead as well which will aid substantially in
the large-scale ascent. Uncertainty of strength of storms stem
from the issue of the stable air mass from the activity in the
early morning and if the surface heating can destabilize it
enough. This will be an all hazards possible event that will go
into the overnight hours.

Besides the severe threat Tuesday, there is also non-convective,
strong winds expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Wind gusts could get
up to 30-40 mph as the low pressure gradient passes over. The
probability for 45 mph gusts is still quite low, so an advisory is
not expected to be needed at this time.

There is now a marginal risk for areas along a Champaign to Shelby
county line for Day 3 (Wednesday). The slight risk just barely clips
Crawford and Lawrence counties in southeastern Illinois. This is the
result of the leftover convection from Tuesday night. After
Wednesday, there is some remain chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms through Friday night. A quieter weather period appears
to start Saturday and should last into the new week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs with
mostly clear skies through tomorrow, then broken high clouds will
move over PIA and BMI during the evening, with broken mid clouds
around 15kft moving over SPI, DEC, and CMI...also during the
evening. Winds will be light overnight but also variable as the
sfc boundary still slowly moves through the area and a sfc ridge
moves toward the state. Tomorrow morning, winds will become
northeast around 8-11kts and then during the evening, become more
easterly at 12kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$