000
FXUS63 KIWX 161337
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
937 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers developing late today, then widespread
  showers with isolated storms with gusty winds tonight.

- Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated
  tornado possible mid to late Wednesday afternoon.

- Cooler, scattered showers Thursday and Friday

- Cool and dry weekend with frost likely. Highs in the 50s.
  Lows in the 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Overall forecast on track, with only concern being the need to
remove slgt pops through 21Z.

850 mb theta-e surge well underway across the area, but lower
level moisture still low with dewpoints ranging from the low 30s
far NE to the mid 40s south of US-24 and 50+ degree still south
of Indianapolis. Rather unimpressive satellite presentation
aside from a narrow band of clouds around 4500 ft with no
indications of develop suggest little if any precip potential.
850 mb jet remains focused well to the west with general 20 to
25 kt flow over the area. While I suspect any shower activity
will wait until after 21Z in far W/NW areas as sfc warm front
edges north, will maintain slgt chc mention for
consistency/collaboration across the south through 21Z with
northward expansion thereafter (also possibly overdone). Main
shower/storm chances will still reside with current convection
across SW Iowa to SE Kansas. Will continue to monitor trends,
but suspect a dry forecast will dominate until after 21Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An upper low was over the Front Range near Denver early this
morning with an upper level trof extending south of the low.
This system will eject east today and bring several factors for
severe weather together Wednesday. Ahead of this system, a front
had become stationary near the Ohio River. The front will move
back north as a warm front today and be accompanied by increasing
moisture and clouds. Have scaled back shower and storm chances
today in light of the latest HRRR and other models holding back
the activity until the better upper level support arrives
tonight. Upper level diffluence, cold mid level temperatures,
modest low level moisture, surface convergence along the front
and surface based CAPEs per HRRR rising close to 2000 J/Kg by
early Wednesday afternoon over northeast Indiana and northwest
Ohio together support an environment favorable for damaging
winds, large hail and an isolated tornado. Still have some
concern that flooding south of Ft Wayne will renew given
additional rainfall with some rivers there still above flood
stage at this time. Otherwise, cooler with showers behind this
system Thursday night into early Friday then dry and chilly
through this weekend as a large upper low descends toward Hudson
Bay. Frost is likely Saturday night and Sunday night. It is
likely headlines will be issued for frost and possibly freezing
temperatures given the advancement of the growing season.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Mainly VFR this period within wrn flank of retreating sfc ridge
although some showers possible late period as decaying remnants of
upstream convection this aftn trickle ewd late evening. Otherwise
gusty serly winds by late morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T