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000
FXUS63 KJKL 152318
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance and descending weak boundary look to bring
  isolated to scattered showers and storms to parts of the area
  this evening and tonight. A couple of these storms could be
  strong with gusty winds the main threat.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms are forecast for
  Tuesday through Wednesday night, and over next weekend. Chances
  peak Wednesday and Wednesday night when the strongest storms
  are possible.

- Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area
  through Friday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to low
  80s each day, or about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024

Lowered PoPs through the remainder of the evening and narrowed the
corridor for slight chance and chance PoPs late tonight into the
early morning hours, primarily using a heavy blend of NBM with
some CONShort models. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have so
far had a difficult time developing without a forcing mechanism
and with rising mid-level heights as mid-level ridging builds
north into the area. Nevertheless, up to a few stray showers or
storms are possible through the late evening and overnight, with
storms this evening posing a marginal to slight risk for producing
severe winds or hail. No other significant changes were made for
the early evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024

Kentucky is currently sitting in the warm sector with a frontal
boundary located just north of the Ohio River. This front will
slowly drop southward throughout the late afternoon and evening,
reaching the northern portion of the JKL CWA. It never quite makes
it farther south, however, as it waffles back and forth around the
Ohio River. Eventually, by tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon, a very
strong low pressure system moving into the Mississippi Valley
region, will push the boundary back north as a warm front, with a
potent cold front nearing the western portion of the state by the
evening and overnight.

For this evening, there is some concerns with the nearing boundary
causing some convection to develop which could potentially be
severe. SPC added us into a slight risk for this reason. That being
said, the CAMs really don`t have anything developing across us until
later this evening and dropping south away from the boundary. By
this point, we lose most of our mixing and what little instability
we have. We are also under sheered, so it may be hard to keep storms
organized enough to become severe. Will definitely be something to
watch as we head into the evening and overnight. Based on the CAMs,
there is decent confidence in something developing along the
boundary and moving southward, but the exact impacts and the
severity are still somewhat uncertain.

Regardless, this system should keep cloud cover across at least a
portion, if not most of the CWA overnight. Because of this, didn`t
add too much of a ridge/valley split in the temperatures. Generally
southerly winds on the south-side of the boundary will also keep
temperatures mild, with lows around 60.

Tuesday should be mostly dry across the CWA, though can`t rule out
some isolated showers/storms, especially in the northeast CWA as the
boundary moves back north again as a warm front. Clouds will remain
cloudy, but the continued increased southerly flow will still keep
temperatures well above normal, with highs similar to that of today,
in the low 80s.

A line of storms will develop ahead of the cold front and traverse
the state from west to east by Tuesday night. The best pops will
make it into the JKL CWA by Wednesday, as we head into the extended
portion of the forecast. However, could see some convection reach
the western JKL border. Instability will ramp up into the daytime
hours on Wednesday, but anything that does occur on Tuesday night
may still have enough lift and instability closer to the frontal
boundary to produce thunderstorm potential.  Therefore started out
as rain for the low-end chances as it moved in, then ramped up with
some thunder as the better chances moved into the west the last few
hours of the period. Again, this should be a very mild night, with
clouds helping to insulate the deep WAA. Lows should only drop into
the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 522 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024

The long term begins with a stacked low pressure system over the
Midwest. This system will dampen further as it moves into the
Great Lakes by Wednesday night, sending a shearing out cold front
across the Commonwealth. This will bring likely PoPs (50-70%) to
our area, with the potential of some stronger storms, depending on
how much instability will be in place. Short wave ridging still
looks to move in for Thursday into Thursday evening, allowing for
a quick return of dry weather. A northern stream upper level low
will then move east over south central Canada into Friday, with a
positively tilted trough aligning west southwest through the
northern Rockies. This trough will eventually swing through the
Mississippi Valley and points east late this weekend and into
early next week, with still some model variability regarding
smaller scale features. In general, another surface cold front
will gradually drop southeast from the Ohio to Tennessee valley
from Thursday night through Sunday evening, with another period of
unsettled weather expected across eastern Kentucky. Chances look
to peak at likely (60%) on Friday with the frontal passage. The
front will then gradually exit to our southeast, with enough
moisture lingering as well as mid and upper level forcing to
maintain chance PoPs (30-40%) through the weekend. Drier weather
follows early next week.

Well above (around 10 degrees) normal temperatures will continue
through Thursday, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower
80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures will then cool off
to below (around 5 degrees) normal by Sunday and Monday, with
lows mainly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON APR 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. With
convective activity lacking as of 23z, have opted to remove any
mention of VCTS from the TAFs for tonight. Light west to
southwest winds will diminish with the loss of daytime heating,
with light south winds generally less than 10 kts developing
again by early Tuesday afternoon. With confidence in shower or
thunderstorm activity at any one TAF location appearing quite low
for Tuesday, have opted to keep any mention of VCSH or VCTS out
of the TAFs for now.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC