039
FXUS64 KLCH 031734
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in
association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across
the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the
convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the
light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be
disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise
dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase.

CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective
evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently
ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were
indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in
favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were
made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight
the most susceptible areas based on yesterday`s rainfall and the
latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not
expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it`s not
going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across
Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana.

Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and
largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions
should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into
Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region
Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely
scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10
corridor.

By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and
this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered
convection to develop across much of the region.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much
of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will
advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will
be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the
lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana
and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In
an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would
have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon
convection, but these would be isolated and short lived.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening, accompanied by occasional gusty winds and mainly VFR
ceilings. Overall this activity has lessened in coverage/intensity
over the last couple of hours therefore impacts should be fairly
minimal this afternoon. Tonight, rain comes to an end however, fog
will become an issue after midnight and beyond. All terminals
will have the potential to see fog, which will also be accompanied
by MVFR/IFR ceilings. Thereafter, fog will start to burn off
while our next round of convection is expected to spread into the
region from the west. This activity should be much less in
coverage/intensity than the last couple of days.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland.
Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small
craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow
and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  65  86  66 /  80  20  30  10
LCH  81  70  84  71 /  80  10  10  10
LFT  82  70  86  71 /  80  10  10   0
BPT  82  71  84  72 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17