832
FXUS64 KLIX 010848
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

In the immediate term, we`re monitoring gradual development of
areas of dense fog as evidenced by intermittent 1/4SM obs at
Slidell Airport and scattered low clouds building down at MSY and
NEW. Highest probabilities of dense fog are situated across
coastal MS, Pearl River Basin, and along the Mississippi River
basin where colder waters will locally enhance fog development. As
a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued valid through 9 AM
CDT.

Dense fog should quickly burn off in the following hours after
sunrise and temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 80s to
low 90s areawide. A solid 5-10F above normal areawide and nearing
a record high at BTR and ASD. Daytime heating along with a bit
more focused lift along a surface boundary near the Atchafalaya
Basin will aid in bubbling up of some afternoon showers and storms
around this area, but the lack of shear and largescale forcing
should keep these in check and things will quiet down quickly
toward sunset.

Thereafter, our attention turns to the next approaching shortwave
trough ejecting off the southern Rockies within the longwave
west-southwesterly flow. This will aid in ample height falls
sufficient for widespread convective development along the dryline
in the Texas Hill Country this afternoon and evening. Latest CAM
guidance is in general agreement that this convection will
gradually organize into an MCS that will propagate east into
southwest Louisiana late Wednesday night. Exact timing remains
highly variable between CAM guidance in how they sustain/resolve
the propagation of this feature. Given the shortwave trough does
not surpass this convection until around 18z Thursday and ample
moisture/instability exists ahead of it to help sustain it, this
forecast hedges toward this MCS surviving and arriving into our
area on Thursday morning. Severe weather impacts should be
limited to gusty winds and locally heavy rain, similar to that of
the line of storms that passed through on Monday, but will need
to monitor the progress of this feature closely for changes here.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The general southwesterly flow through the mid-levels associated
with a robust and persistent longwave troughing pattern over the
western CONUS will keep us warm and more humid through the long
range. While things stay busy across the central part of the
country in this pattern, the majority of forcing and trough
passages will remain to our north through this period keeping us
mainly out of excessive rain and severe threats with not much in
the way of PoPs beyond Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Main concern for the 06z TAF package will be the threat of low
conditions around sunrise Wednesday with the potential for
radiation type fog. Potential for fog certainly exists, but the
air a few hundred feet off the surface is considerably drier than
most of the forecast soundings from the morning/afternoon model
runs would indicate, with dew points below 15C. Will carry MVFR to
IFR visibilities at most terminals, but will acknowledge that
there is at least some potential for even lower conditions around
sunrise. Expect any low conditions that do develop will improve by
15z, if not sooner. The remainder of the day will see VFR
conditions. Overnight Wednesday night will see concerns for low
conditions requiring flight restrictions again beyond 06z
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

We will be monitoring the progress of a line of storms tracking
across southern Louisiana Thursday morning which could create
gustier winds and higher seas than currently advertised in the
forecast. Monitor the latest forecast for further updates if
confidence increases for impacts. Otherwise, persistent southeast
flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected
through the weekend on the southwest periphery of a surface high
dominating the Southeastern CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  64  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  89  67  86  70 /  10   0  20  20
ASD  87  66  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  85  70  84  71 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  83  68  82  70 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  84  65  83  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS