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000
FXUS66 KLOX 141514
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
814 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/813 AM.

Cool, showery weather will persist through today with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Accumulating snow and wintry conditions
are expected at higher elevations through today as well. A
warming trend will begin Monday with dry and warmer weather
expected through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...14/812 AM.

***UPDATE***

A 549 dam H5 upper level low was about 50 miles W of Point
Piedras Blancas early this morning and is forecast to move E into
SLO County by late this morning then SE into L.A. County by late
this afternoon before quickly exiting the region this evening.
This system has brought numerous showers to SLO/SBA Counties this
morning, with a few showers also over southern VTU/L.A. Counties.

H5 temps in the -22 to -28 deg C range will move over the area
with the upper level low today, and along with cyclonic flow aloft
and heating from the strong April sunshine, will destabilize the
atmosphere further, promoting the formation of additional showers
and possible thunderstorms across the region thru this afternoon.
Any heavier showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
can be expected with any thunderstorms as well. There is also a
very small non-zero chance that a weak tornado could develop.

This is a more convective pattern than yesterday which means
precip will be more showery with some sunny breaks, but most areas
should at least get some additional precipitation, generally a
half inch or less, but locally higher near heavier showers and
thunderstorms.

Snow levels have lowered to around 4500 feet and could lower to
as low as 3500-4000 feet this morning and in heavier showers this
afternoon. Due to additional snowfall and some gusty winds, the
Winter Weather Advisory for the higher mountain will continue
until 5 PM. Please see the latest Winter Weather Message
(LAXWSWLOX) for further details.

***From Previous Discussion***

Showers and storms expected to taper off quickly this evening,
except some lingering showers possible over the northern mountains
near the LA/Kern County line. Snow levels by that time expected
to be closer to 5000 feet so any precip on the Grapevine later
tonight should be in the form of rain.

Dry and warmer weather expected Monday with some locally breezy
north winds. Warmer again Tuesday as high pressure aloft starts
to build from the west and light offshore flow develops. Warmer
valleys expected to reach 80 degrees while interior coastal areas
like Downtown LA and San Luis Obispo reach the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...14/259 AM.

High pressure aloft expected to last at least through Wednesday
with another degree or two of warming. By the end of the week a
weak trough will replace the ridge and onshore flow will return
for slightly cooler weather and possibly a return of the marine
layer to coastal areas. This pattern will be in place at least
through next Saturday with no rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0041Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, there was only a 5000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in TAFs Cig and Vis will change frequently through
the period. All flight cats are possible but low MVFR is most
probable. LIFR conds in dense fog is most possible for KSMX, KSBP
and KPRB.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent changes
in cig and vis mostly likely above 010 but with a 20 percent chc
of brief BKN008 conds. Low confidence in wind direction forecast.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There will likely be frequent
changes in cig heights, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...14/734 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Monday
afternoon and evening, there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force
winds around Point Conception. For Wednesday through Thursday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. For today, there will be a combination of SCA
level winds and seas. For tonight through Tuesday, SCA level winds
are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For
Wednesday and Thursday, winds and seas will remain below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, there is
a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel...and a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds
elsewhere (mainly in the afternoon and evening hours). For
Wednesday and Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for all the coastal
waters waters today.

&&

.BEACHES...14/302 AM.

A marginal high surf event is expected through at least this
evening. Strong rip current activity is likely. On the Central
Coast, surf of 7 and 10 feet with local sets to 12 feet is
expected, highest on west and northwest facing beaches. S of Pt
Conception, surf of 5 and 8 feet is expected Sunday, highest on
west facing beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this
      afternoon for zones 353-376-377-379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox