834
FXUS61 KLWX 030759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will cross the area today before sinking
south this weekend. A secondary cold front will pass through
the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Backdoor cold front is currently crossing the Potomac River from
northeast to southwest as seen on TDWRs base reflectivity
product. NE winds will cool things down significantly today
with high temperatures 10 degs or more cooler than yesterday.
There will be plenty of high level clouds around through much of
the day. Sct-nmrs afternoon showers and t-storms are expected
to develop, but should remain primarily west of the Blue Ridge.
Sfc to upper level ridging to the east should keep things dry
through tonight. As onshore flow strengthens tonight, expect
marine layer to advect well inland with a low thick overcast
expected by daybreak Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A series of weak upper level perturbations will move across the
region over the weekend gradually eroding the ridge pattern and
allowing moisture to deepen, particularly during the Saturday
night and Sunday time frame. Expect a gloomy and soggy weekend
with off and on showers through Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts
are likely to exceed one inch over the entire weekend. The lack
of instability suggests that rainfall rates will be manageable.
Also, the long duration of the event should allow for the
ground to absorb much of the rain without causing much in the
way of flooding problems.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A cold front draped across the region Monday and Tuesday will bring
unsettled weather to the forecast area. Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are possible both days with atmospheric conditions
peaking each afternoon and into the evening. Ample moisture aloft
(PWATS 1.5in-2 in) will allow for heavy rainfall rates at times.
Beginning Tuesday, the focus will be on the parent low pressure
system as it begins to lift northward through the Great Lakes
region. The cold front draped over the forecast area will begin
lifting northward as a warm front while the associated cold front
approaches from the Plains. From Tuesday through the remainder of
the long term period, the forecast area will be in the warm sector
allowing for an increasing threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms. In addition to the severe weather threat, isolated
instances of flooding are possible due to recent weekend rainfall
possibly saturating soils. We will continue to monitor this system
as is approaches.

Temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday with
overnight low temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
In the wake of the warm front, temperatures rise into the 80s for
most Wednesday and Thursday. Those at higher elevations will stay in
the upper 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR through 06Z Sat, then rapidly lowering cigs overnight to
IFR/LIFR as onshore flow develops. Off and on rain/showers
develop Saturday and persist through Sunday with prevailing IFR
conditions persisting through early next week.

Reduced CIGs and VSBYs are possible during showers and thunderstorms
Monday and Tuesday. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR
conditions are expected along with light winds 5-10 knots and
gusting up to 15 knots. Winds will be out of the south each day.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA conditions develop later this morning and likely persist
through Monday as onshore flow strengthens. Rain/showers will be
widespread both Saturday and Sunday, but the threat of thunder
will remain low.

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters both Monday and
Tuesday as southerly winds stay below SCA criteria. As a warm front
moves over the waters, winds increase to just below SCA criteria
Tuesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Onshore flow will strengthen today and persist through early
next week. This will raise water levels and keep them elevated
through early next week causing minor coastal flooding as early
as Saturday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR