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000
FNUS71 KLWX 151616
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Evick Knob RX...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1216 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe with
damaging winds and large hail, are expected today through about
6 PM as a cold front drops through the area. Expect a significant
wind shift late this afternoon with winds shifting to NW.

An area of low pressure and its associated cold front will slowly
move southward through the area today. This brings a threat for
some strong to severe thunderstorms. The boundary settles to the
south on Tuesday before returning northward as a warm front on
Wednesday. A weak cold front tracks through on Thursday before a
stronger frontal system approaches the area by late in the work
week. Above normal temperatures are likely this week before
turning cooler this weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 30 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........83 at ignition...Max 83.
RH..................32 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 14 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 14 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /90300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /132000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  51  55  57
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............40  40  40  30
Temp............83  83  82  83
RH..............32  31  31  30
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  14  15  15
20 FT wind gust.21  21  22  22
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   9   9
Eye lvl wnd gst.13  13  13  13
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  18  20
Haines index....5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..90  111 128 132
Ventrate Cat....GD  VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 10 percent early in
                    the evening.
Temperature.........Min 53.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    shifting to the north around 4 mph, then
                    decreasing to around 3 mph overnight becoming
                    light.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 14 mph early in the evening
                    shifting to the north 6 to 7 mph, then
                    decreasing to around 5 mph overnight becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 2
                    to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight,
                    then shifting to the northeast 5 to 7 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (92900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     35     38     35     37     44
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
CWR.............30     10     10     0      0      0
Temp............78     69     65     61     58     55
RH..............35     56     67     78     83     83
20 ft wind......W 14   W 9    NW 7   N 6    N 5    N 5
20 ft wind gust.20     14     10     8      7      6
Eye level wind..W 8    W 5    NW 4   N 4    N 3    N 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.12     8      6      5      4      4
Transport wind..W 18   W 14   NW 7   NW 2   N 5    NE 7
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..93     11     0      0      1      4
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 44 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming south 6 to 8 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west 7 to 9 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........49     44     45     54     67     71
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      10     10     10     30     30
Temp............54     55     62     69     73     74
RH..............80     77     58     49     44     48
20 ft wind......E 2    S 3    S 6    SW 8   S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.5      5      9      12     12     12
Eye level wind..E 1    S 2    S 4    SW 5   S 5    S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.3      3      5      7      7      7
Transport wind..NE 7   E 6    S 9    SW 10  W 10   W 8
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7      7      15     23     31     35
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Rosa
Requested by...Aaron Strobel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410936.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mark.rudacille@usda.gov,James.collett@usda.gov,aaron.p.strobel@usda.gov