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000
FNUS71 KLWX 222339
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Chimney Rock Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
739 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will build over the area through tonight. Some frost
is expected to develop, which could leave ground pretty damp through
mid-morning.

Additional warming will occur Tuesday as a southerly flow develops.
High temperatures will reach the upper 60s. Winds will be out of
the S/SSW at around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph in the
afternoon. Minimum RH will drop to 30-35 percent.

A cold front will reach the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
bringing the next chance of showers. However, coverage will be
isolated to scattered east of the Appalachians with rain amounts
less than one tenth of an inch.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Areas of frost
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 4 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the northwest
                    late in the evening, then becoming light after
                    3 am.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 3 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   2   7   17  20
Weather cov.....                        ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....                        FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  51  50  48  48  47  46  45  44  42
RH..............35  39  42  44  44  45  47  49  51  55
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.        7   7   7   6       5
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.                4   4       3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 3 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph.
Transport winds.....West around 1 mph shifting to the north around
                    0 mph early in the morning, then shifting to
                    the south 1 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    increasing to southwest 13 to 22 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon shifting to
                    the south around 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (96600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (105200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........29     31     9      8      18     25
Weather cov.....AREAS
Weather type....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............41     44     53     59     63     67
RH..............57     60     44     36     34     32
20 ft wind......W 5    SW 5   S 8    S 12   S 12   S 12
20 ft wind gust.       6      14     16     18     21
Eye level wind..W 3    SW 3   S 5    S 7    S 7    S 7
Eye lvl wnd gst.       4      8      10     11     13
Transport wind..W 1    S 1    S 13   SW 20  S 20   S 24
Haines index....5      4      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      0      40     97     90     118
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   VYGD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers late in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    evening, then increasing to 40 percent
                    overnight decreasing to 30 percent early in the
                    morning.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 7 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 12 mph overnight.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 8
                    to 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........36     59     59     72     93     97
Weather cov.....                     SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     30     40     40
Temp............63     58     56     55     54     53
RH..............38     45     51     55     59     66
20 ft wind......S 13   S 12   S 12   SW 12  SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.20     14     15     14     13     14
Eye level wind..S 8    S 7    S 7    SW 7   SW 6   SW 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.12     8      9      8      8      8
Transport wind..S 21   S 13   S 12   S 10   SW 9   SW 8
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..65     1      0      1      1      0
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Ledbetter
Requested by...Jeff Seabright
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411866.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeffrey_Seabright@nps.gov